Can LDO still enter the observation pool? The protocol is strong, but token capture requires a discount

Analysis time: 2026.06.23 21:07

Current price: approximately 0.256 USDT

First, the conclusion:

LDO still deserves to be kept in the key observation pool, but it should not be regarded as a risk-free cash flow coin for heavy holding.

Many people look at LDO from a single point: Lido is the leading ETH liquidity staking platform, with huge TVL, and genuine protocol revenue, so LDO is undervalued.

This judgment is only half correct.

Lido’s business is indeed strong.

Current TVL is about 14.98 billion USD, and the protocol revenue over the past year is about 74.64 million USD. The protocol itself is not a shell project.

But the real issue with LDO is not the business, but token capture.

Having revenue does not mean LDO holders are stably earning income.

There are records of holder income over the past 30 days, but 7 days and 24 hours are zero, indicating that capture is not continuously and stably distributed.

Therefore, LDO cannot be directly valued as a mature dividend coin.

Another issue is recent data weakening.

Over the past 30 days, Lido’s TVL dropped from about 18.66 billion USD to about 14.98 billion USD, a decline of approximately 19.71%.

30-day fee month-over-month decreased by about 20.70%, and 30-day protocol revenue decreased by about 49.11%.

This indicates that we are not in a business acceleration period but in a cooling-off period.

Public section first gives the conclusion:

LDO is not untouchable, but should be viewed with a discount.

Its advantages are ETH staking fundamentals, stETH liquidity, genuine protocol revenue, and low unlocking pressure.

Its shortcomings are discontinuous token capture, high regulatory risk, high governance risk, and cooling of multi-chain expansion narratives.

I define LDO as:

A strong protocol with solid fundamentals, but a low-position observation project that needs verification for token capture.

The premium version subscription has been fully unpacked:

Reasonable coin price anchor points;

Undervalued observation zone;

Overpriced zone;

Cash flow valuation;

Falsification conditions;

How to handle long and short positions.

The public section only provides the direction; complete valuation and operational paths are included in the subscription content.

Risk reminder:

The above is only personal research notes and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; please control your positions and implement strict risk management.