Can PENDLE still enter the observation pool? Let me first look at a key risk

First, the conclusion:

PENDLE still deserves to stay in the observation pool, but it should not be treated as a strong offensive asset now.

Many people see PENDLE only as a leading yield trading project, with narratives like RWA income, fixed returns, and funding rate markets, then immediately say it is undervalued.

I think this judgment only sees half of the picture.

PENDLE indeed has real business and real income, which is stronger than many projects that only have stories and no cash flow.

But today’s biggest problem is:

Data is weakening.

In the past 30 days, PENDLE’s TVL dropped from about $1.59B to about $1.03B, a decline of approximately 35.37%.

During the same period, fee income decreased by about 34.77%, and protocol revenue fell by about 35.64%.

This indicates that the issue is not just price volatility, but also capital sedimentation, protocol activity, and income quality are cooling down.

Public section first gives the conclusion:

PENDLE is not being removed from the observation pool, but downgraded from “offensive key observation” to “data repair observation.”

Its advantages are clear:

Unique track;

Strong product barriers;

Real income;

Income capture for holders.

But its risks are also clear:

The yield trading track is highly cyclical, and during data decline, blindly chasing highs is risky.

After analyzing PENDLE, I only focus on three signals:

Can TVL rebound to over $1.2 billion?

Can 30-day fees return to above $800k?

During a rebound, can trading volume and income recover simultaneously?

If these three signals do not appear, a short-term rebound is more likely a correction, not a re-entry into the main upward trend.

The premium version subscription has already covered the analysis:

Reasonable token price anchors;

Low valuation observation zone;

Overpriced zone;

Cash flow valuation;

Falsification conditions;

How to handle long and short positions separately.

The public section only provides the direction; complete valuation and operational paths are in the subscription content.

Risk reminder:

The above is only personal research notes and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; please control your positions and implement strict risk management.