Wintermute Market Report » Fed turns more hawkish, the Iran deal falls apart and weighs on cryptocurrencies, and the market waits for PCE data to come to the rescue

According to the latest market report released by well-known cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) recent hawkish shift and the unexpected breakdown of the Iran agreement have become two major black swan events dealing a heavy blow to risk assets. The report points out that the cryptocurrency market has already priced in the declines not yet digested by the US stock market over the weekend, leading to nearly $600 million in long liquidations; however, after leverage reset, if positive data emerges, Bitcoin (BTC) may rebound from lows.
(Background summary: Wintermute's latest analysis: Crypto markets and US stocks "seriously decoupled"! Capital rushes into AI, skipping Bitcoin, but long-term large holders are quietly accumulating OTC)
(Additional context: Wintermute warns: Hot Non-Farm Payrolls trigger bloodbath in Bitcoin and tech stocks, Strategy surprisingly reduces holdings for the first time in two years)

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• Fed signals strong hawkish stance, inflation concerns intensify
• Iran agreement breakdown, crypto market "preemptively dips" over the weekend
• Strategy continues buying, awaiting PCE data guidance

The global macroeconomic situation has experienced intense volatility within a week, directly impacting the highly liquidity-dependent cryptocurrency market. According to the latest analysis from the well-known market maker Wintermute posted on X platform, the most influential factor currently driving market direction remains the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy, while sudden geopolitical developments have become the final straw crushing bullish confidence.

Fed signals strong hawkish stance, inflation concerns intensify

Wintermute states in the report that although the Fed kept interest rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range (as expected by the market), the overall policy tone has shifted significantly toward hawkish. The Fed's post-meeting statement was shortened from 341 words to 130 words and completely removed the previous "easing bias." Even more unexpectedly, the dot plot forecast shifted from hinting at rate cuts to signaling rate hikes, with the median forecast for 2026 rising from 3.4% to 3.8%.

Additionally, among 18 decision-makers, as many as 17 believe inflation risks are skewed upward, with market expectations for a December rate hike soaring from about 24% a month ago to approximately 77%. This indicates that even with falling oil prices, the Fed's concerns about inflation have far exceeded energy factors' influence.

Iran agreement breakdown, crypto market "preemptively dips" over the weekend

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump initially planned to sign the Iran agreement (including reopening the Hormuz Strait) in Switzerland on June 19, but it was postponed due to Israel's attack on southern Lebanon, leading Iran to withdraw. Although Qatar is attempting to extend negotiations until the end of June, the previously "de-escalation trade" has already failed.

Wintermute's analysis suggests that because U.S. stock markets were closed last week for Juneteenth, they did not immediately reflect the negative news of the agreement breakdown; in contrast, the 24/7 crypto market bore the brunt. Bitcoin, after reaching a 7-day high of nearly $67,000, quickly retreated and oscillated in the $60k low range; Ethereum (ETH) even fell below $2,000, becoming the weakest major coin. This weekend's decline triggered about $600 million in long liquidations, effectively "pre-repricing" the crypto market ahead of the upcoming US stock market open.

Strategy continues buying, awaiting PCE data guidance

Regarding market liquidity, the report also clarifies recent panic rumors. The widespread speculation that large entity Strategy (MicroStrategy) sold 32 BTC is just noise; the firm actually bought about 1,587 Bitcoin (worth roughly $100 million) between June 8 and 14 at an average price of around $63,000. Although rising capital costs have slowed their pace, their long-term accumulation strategy remains unchanged.

Looking ahead, Wintermute concludes that the crypto market is currently in a highly defensive state (leverage fully reset, market sentiment subdued). As Bitcoin holds above $60,000, any weak May PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) data released this Friday or progress in Qatar negotiations could trigger a short-term rebound. However, a true bull reversal still depends on structural capital flows such as ETFs and stablecoins improving substantively.