Strategy 增持 520 枚比特币：买币飞轮减速，股息覆盖模式撑得住吗？

By May 2026, Strategy's cash reserves were sufficient to cover approximately 24 months of STRC preferred stock dividends. However, the company recently used part of its cash reserves to repay $1.5 billion in convertible bonds, significantly reducing available cash for dividend payments, decreasing coverage from 24 months to about 7 months. On June 23, Strategy announced an increase in cash reserves by $300 million to $1.4 billion, while extending the dividend coverage period to nearly 10 months. From 24 months to 7 months and then to 10 months—this sharp fluctuation in coverage cycles essentially exposes the risk of "short-term debt funding long-term investments" mismatch in Strategy's capital structure.

Cash reserves are the core safeguard for Strategy's dividend payments on preferred stock and debt interest. By the end of 2025, the company established a "USD reserve" account to maintain the credit quality of its digital credit securities. As of June 21, 2026, the reserve balance reached $1.4 billion (including expected cash from unsettled ATM sales). This $1.4 billion cash reserve corresponds to about 10 months of dividend coverage—that is, the company needs to pay approximately $140 million per month in preferred stock dividends and related interest. Based on an annual dividend rate of 11.5% for STRC, just the annual dividend expense for one series of STRC already constitutes a significant cash outflow.

The compression of the coverage cycle is not an isolated event. It reflects Strategy's increasingly strained financial balance between aggressive Bitcoin accumulation and rigid dividend obligations.

Can ATM stock issuance sustain the closed-loop cycle of financing—buying coins?

The funds for Strategy’s recent purchase of 520 Bitcoins mainly rely on the ATM (At-The-Market) stock issuance plan. Between June 15 and 21, the company sold a total of 2,714,839 shares of MSTR Class A common stock, within the $21 billion expansion quota announced by the end of March 2026. The total amount spent on buying 520 BTC was about $34.9 million, with an average purchase price of approximately $67,068 per Bitcoin.

The "financing—buying coins" closed-loop logic is straightforward: Strategy raises funds by issuing common and preferred shares, invests the proceeds into the Bitcoin market, and uses the value of Bitcoin reserves to support the creditworthiness of its digital credit securities, thereby maintaining the capacity for new rounds of financing. This model operates smoothly during Bitcoin bull cycles—asset appreciation creates more financing space, which in turn leads to more Bitcoin holdings.

However, the effective operation of this loop depends on two premises: first, Bitcoin prices continue to rise or at least remain stable, allowing the company's book assets to appreciate; second, preferred stocks trade near their face value, maintaining market demand for new issuances. When both premises are challenged simultaneously, the sustainability of the cycle becomes a core concern.

Since 2026, Strategy has acquired approximately 174,300 Bitcoins. But recently, weekly accumulation has sharply declined from 34,164 BTC (worth $2.54 billion) in April to just a few hundred BTC. The significant contraction in capital投入 suggests mounting pressure on the financing side.

STRC preferred stock falls below $84: what risks is the market pricing in?

The price trend of STRC preferred stock is the most direct market signal of confidence in Strategy’s capital structure.

On June 19, 2026, STRC fell to a record low of $82.50, more than 11% below its $100 face value. Since mid-April 2025, STRC has traded below face value. On June 18, it briefly dipped below $83 during trading. Although it rebounded above $90 after the June 23 purchase announcement, it remains significantly discounted from the $100 face value.

STRC was designed as a preferred stock instrument trading close to $100 face value, offering variable dividends supported by Bitcoin reserves. Its annual dividend rate is 11.5%, paid semi-monthly. In theory, as long as STRC trades near face value, the company can continuously raise funds through automatic issuance mechanisms. But if the price remains below face value for an extended period, this financing efficiency diminishes.

The discount behind STRC reflects multiple market risk assessments: first, Bitcoin itself has fallen about 40% from its October 2025 peak; second, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoins (about $2.5 million) in May 2026—its first sale since 2022, a small amount but psychologically impactful; third, the company faces an annual preferred dividend obligation of about $1.7 billion, fueling investor concerns that dividend cuts are inevitable.

The discount on STRC not only affects preferred stock holders. As a key funding source for Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases, persistent STRC discounting will directly constrain the company's financing ability, impacting its pace of Bitcoin accumulation.

The gap between the $64.1 billion cost basis and the $65,000 market price: how wide is it?

The difference between Strategy’s cost basis and market price is a core indicator of its financial safety margin.

As of June 21, 2026, Strategy held 847,363 Bitcoins, with a total cost basis of about $64.1 billion, averaging approximately $75,651 per Bitcoin. With Bitcoin briefly trading above $65,000 after the announcement, unrealized losses are about $9 billion. Using the price of $63,290 (as of June 23), unrealized losses are even more significant.

The average cost basis of $75,651 versus the current market price of $65,000 shows an approximately 14% gap. This means Bitcoin needs to rise about 16.4% from current levels to reach the breakeven point. From another perspective, this holding accounts for about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply. Any forced liquidation of such a large position would have a profound impact on the market.

However, Strategy’s financial safety cushion is not solely based on Bitcoin holdings. The company’s combined Bitcoin and USD reserves exceed total debt by about $48 billion. Even under extreme stress scenarios, there is some buffer. But the key issue is: as financing costs (preferred dividends) continue to be rigidly paid, and asset values (Bitcoin holdings) fluctuate, the speed of cash reserve depletion will determine how long the company can withstand prolonged downturns.

What is happening to the listed company’s hodling model?

Strategy’s corporate Bitcoin strategy essentially represents a 2.0 version of the listed company hodling model—continuously financing and increasing Bitcoin holdings through diversified capital market tools (common stock, convertible bonds, perpetual preferred stock), transforming the company into a leveraged Bitcoin investment vehicle.

This model demonstrates a strong positive feedback loop during Bitcoin bull markets: asset appreciation → increased financing capacity → more buying → further asset price appreciation. But following the 40% correction from the October 2025 peak, this reverse feedback has begun to surface: asset shrinkage → increased financing difficulty → reduced buying pressure → market confidence pressure.

The persistent discount of STRC preferred stock is a market stress test of this model. The price trend of STRC is not just a securities pricing issue but a collective market assessment of the "enterprise leveraged hodling" business model. When leverage, competition, and macro headwinds converge, the discount on preferred stocks may serve as an indicator of broader stress spreading through the Bitcoin ecosystem.

It’s worth noting that Strategy is not passively reacting. The company’s announcements of increased holdings and cash reserves aim to signal financial robustness. The June 23 announcement helped STRC rebound from recent lows and climb back above $90. But whether this rebound can sustain depends on the market’s reassessment of the long-term sustainability of its capital structure.

Can $1.4 billion cash reserves serve as a buffer?

The $1.4 billion cash reserve is Strategy’s key tool for short-term liquidity management. The company explicitly states that increasing USD reserves aims to strengthen the credit quality of its digital credit securities and maintain its capital structure to respond to future actions.

Quantitatively, $1.4 billion corresponds to about 10 months of dividend coverage. If Bitcoin prices remain depressed, further constraining financing capacity, and dividend obligations stay rigid, the depletion rate of cash reserves will determine the company's time window. With annual preferred dividend obligations of about $1.7 billion, $1.4 billion in cash reserves can cover less than a year of dividends—excluding other debt interest and operational expenses.

Strategy states that its Bitcoin reserves can cover 32 years of dividends—this assumes Bitcoin prices remain stable. If Bitcoin prices continue to decline, this calculation will be invalidated.

Historically, Strategy faced a more severe test in October 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $16k, and the company’s debt temporarily exceeded the combined value of Bitcoin and cash reserves by about $300 million. The company did not sell or restructure at that time and ultimately survived the cycle. But the situation in 2026 differs fundamentally: back then, the debt structure was simpler, whereas now, the rigid dividend demands of preferred stock holders greatly reduce financial flexibility.

What does the structural trend of incremental buying look like? Is the Bitcoin purchase flywheel slowing?

Looking at the recent purchase of 520 BTC over a longer timeframe reveals some notable trend changes.

In April 2026, Strategy bought 34,164 BTC in a single week, worth $2.54 billion. From June onward, the scale of accumulation sharply declined: from June 1–7, about 1,550 BTC (~$101 million); June 8–14, about 1,587 BTC (~$100 million); June 15–21, 520 BTC (~$34.9 million). The scale shrank from tens of thousands to thousands, then to hundreds—this trend warrants attention.

The contraction in purchase scale may stem from multiple factors: rising costs due to STRC discount, active leverage control by the company, or insufficient market depth to support large buys without impacting prices. Regardless of the cause, the slowing pace of accumulation signals a change—the "buying flywheel" is decelerating.

Meanwhile, MSTR common stock rose about 3% in pre-market after the announcement, indicating some investors view the buy activity positively. But this short-term market reaction is at odds with the persistent discount of STRC preferred stock—long-term Bitcoin exposure interests shareholders, while preferred stock investors focus on short-term cash flow certainty.

Summary

Between June 15 and 21, Strategy purchased 520 BTC at an average cost of $67,068, totaling approximately 847,363 BTC with a total cost of $64.1 billion, averaging $75,651 per Bitcoin. Cash reserves increased to $1.4 billion, extending dividend coverage from 7 to nearly 10 months. After hitting a low of $82.50, STRC rebounded above $90 but remains significantly below its $100 face value.

This data paints a picture: the "financing—buying coins" closed loop of Strategy is still operational but with diminished efficiency. On the financing side, costs are rising due to STRC discounts; on the asset side, paper losses are mounting from Bitcoin price declines; in the middle, rigid dividend payments continue to drain cash reserves. The $1.4 billion cash buffer offers about 10 months of relief, but this window will shrink in a prolonged downturn.

The listed company hodling model is undergoing its most severe stress test since inception. The outcome will not only determine the fate of one company but also serve as a critical reference for the entire industry regarding the performance of "leveraged corporate crypto asset holdings" during a downturn.

FAQ

How many Bitcoins does Strategy currently hold?

As of June 21, 2026, Strategy holds approximately 847,363 BTC, about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply.

What was the cost basis for Strategy’s recent purchase of 520 BTC?

The purchase was completed between June 15 and 21, totaling about $34.9 million, with an average price of approximately $67,068 per Bitcoin (including fees).

What is Strategy’s overall Bitcoin cost basis?

As of June 21, 2026, the total cost basis is about $64.1 billion, averaging approximately $75,651 per Bitcoin.

What is STRC preferred stock?

STRC is a perpetual variable-rate preferred stock issued by Strategy, with an annual dividend rate of 11.5%, paid semi-monthly, designed to trade near a $100 face value.

What is the current trading price of STRC?

On June 19, 2026, STRC hit a record low of $82.50, then rebounded above $90 after the June 23 purchase announcement, but remains well below $100 face value.

Why did the dividend coverage period drop from 24 months to less than 10 months?

Strategy used part of its cash reserves to repay $1.5 billion in convertible bonds, significantly reducing cash available for dividend payments, dropping coverage from about 24 months to roughly 7 months, later extended to nearly 10 months after cash reserves increased to $1.4 billion.

Does Strategy’s Bitcoin position face forced liquidation risk?

Currently, Strategy does not face immediate forced liquidation. The combined Bitcoin and USD reserves exceed total debt by about $48 billion. However, if Bitcoin prices fall sharply and financing capacity remains constrained, cash reserves will deplete faster, increasing liquidation risk.

What was the source of funds for this purchase?

Mainly from ATM stock issuance. During the same period, the company sold 2,714,839 shares of MSTR common stock within the $21 billion expansion quota.