Are quantum computing stocks worth investing in? A comprehensive analysis from the Big Four to tech giants

In June 2026, the cryptocurrency market and the technology sector are both undergoing a dramatic repricing. According to Gate market data, Bitcoin (BTC) had closed at $62,422.0 as of June 23, down 2.88% over the past 24 hours. Over the last 7 days, it is down 7.63%, and over the past year it has fallen 33.74%, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.25 trillion. On the other end of traditional financial markets, the quantum computing sector is becoming a focus of institutional capital. In a research report published on June 22, UBS predicted that Quantum Advantage—the point at which quantum computers surpass classical supercomputers on tasks of practical significance—could arrive around 2039.

This timeline is slightly later than some industry expectations, but UBS’s assessment gives capital markets a quantifiable long-term reference point. More importantly, the report explicitly lists four pure-play quantum computing companies in the institutional watchlist: IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT). At the same time, UBS also noted that large technology companies such as IBM, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia are deeply involved in building quantum computing infrastructure, offering another investment exposure with a markedly different risk-reward profile.

Quantum Advantage 2039: The Core Logic Behind UBS’s Judgment

UBS’s view of Quantum Advantage in 2039 is not based on a hypothesis of a single technological breakthrough, but on the gradual accumulation of commercial value of quantum computing across multiple application scenarios. The report particularly highlights prospects in biopharmaceuticals. While AI has already accelerated the drug discovery process to some extent, quantum computing is expected to break through further—by simulating molecular models and chemical reactions that are too complex for classical systems to handle.

UBS Japan pharmaceutical analyst Atushi Seki said quantum computing could reduce preclinical candidate drug screening from the traditional 4 to 5 years and costs exceeding $100 million to 12 to 18 months and only $3 million to $5 million. If this efficiency improvement is realized, it would fundamentally reshape the pharmaceutical industry’s R&D economic model. Beyond biopharmaceuticals, UBS also identifies AI, cybersecurity, and high-performance computing as the main areas that could benefit from Quantum Advantage.

From a technological implementation perspective, UBS’s 2039 forecast falls within the industry’s mainstream expectation range. Some more optimistic estimates suggest Quantum Advantage may arrive in the early 2030s, while other views point to after 2040. UBS’s timeline is neither overly optimistic nor fully conservative—it provides an institutional-level benchmark that allows investors to evaluate quantum computing assets within a relatively clear long-term framework.

Notably, in earlier analysis UBS had already identified IBM, Alphabet, and Microsoft as leaders in quantum computing. Google Quantum AI’s Willow processor (105 qubits) has demonstrated an ability to deliver exponential acceleration in specific computational tasks; IBM’s Heron processor (156 qubits) has been deployed in molecular chemistry applications. These technological developments form the underlying support for UBS’s assessment.

Four Pure-Play Quantum Computing Stocks: Financial Fundamentals and Market Positioning

The four pure-play quantum computing stocks named by UBS differ in business models, technical routes, and financial performance, but they share common characteristics: high growth, high losses, and valuation volatility.

IonQ (IONQ) is currently the largest pure-play quantum computing company by revenue scale. In the first quarter of 2026, IonQ achieved GAAP revenue of $64.7 million, up 755% year over year, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $260 million to $270 million. As of June 23, IONQ’s closing price was $58.905, with an intraday range of $55.53 to $61.99, and a market capitalization of approximately $21.769 billion. FactSet’s latest survey shows that among 11 analysts, the median target price for IONQ has been raised from $65 to $70, with the highest target price at $100 and the lowest at $48.5. Of the 13 analysts, 10 have given positive ratings, 2 are neutral, and 1 is conservative. However, IONQ’s valuation multiples are equally striking: price-to-sales is about 99x. In the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA loss was $97 million, and operating cash flow was an outflow of $151 million. The trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E is as high as 648, with a beta coefficient of 4.77—both point to extremely high volatility risk.

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) follows the annealing quantum computing technical route, differentiating its competition from IonQ’s ion-trap technology. In the first quarter of 2026, QBTS revenue was $2.9 million, down 81% year over year; however, bookings increased 1,994% year over year to $33.4 million, indicating an explosive surge in demand on the commercial side. On June 15, Mizuho Securities raised its QBTS target price from $29 to $35 while maintaining a “outperform the market” rating. S&P Global’s survey of 15 analysts shows a consensus rating for QBTS of “strong buy,” with an average target price of $36.84. As of June 22, QBTS traded at about $24.47.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) focuses on superconducting quantum processors. It has provided its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q processor on platforms such as Amazon Braket, Microsoft Azure Quantum, and qBraid, with a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.8%. First-quarter revenue was $4.4 million, roughly three times that of the same period last year. As of June 23, RGTI was $21.38, with an intraday high of $22.475 and a low of $20.405, and a market capitalization of approximately $7.107 billion. The average target price from 13 analysts is $29.24, though some analysts have set targets as low as $15. RGTI’s price-to-book ratio is about 12.18, and it remains in a deep loss position.

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) is the smallest by market capitalization among the four, at approximately $2.377 billion. First-quarter revenue was $3.7 million, compared with only $39,000 in the same period last year. Loss per share was $0.02, significantly better than Wall Street’s expected $0.05 loss. As of June 23, QUBT opened at $10.55, with a trading range of $10.45 to $11.30.

Looking at the sector’s overall performance, these four stocks have collectively risen by more than 50% since the end of March 2026. Drivers include the U.S. government’s announcement of a $2 billion federal quantum investment. In mid-June, the sector saw a round of collective rallies: QBTS rose 13%, QUBT rose 12%, RGTI rose 10%, and IONQ rose 6%. On June 23, after-hours trading jumped after the Trump administration signed an executive order on quantum technology, with QBTS up more than 7%, QUBT up more than 5%, RGTI up more than 4%, and IONQ up more than 3%. Policy catalysts and fundamental progress intertwine, forming the main source of the sector’s volatility in 2026.

Quantum Setups by Large Tech: A Different Investment Logic

For investors with lower risk tolerance or those who want to participate in the quantum computing theme in a more diversified manner, UBS’s report also points to another path: investing in large technology companies such as IBM, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia.

The common feature of these companies is that quantum computing is only part of their overall business portfolio. Their core revenue sources are stable (cloud computing, AI chips, enterprise software, etc.), and they have ample R&D budgets and talent reserves. IBM has announced its Blue Jay system plan—deploying a system with 2,000 logical qubits by 2033. Google is advancing quantum software and error correction through Quantum AI. Microsoft provides quantum cloud services through the Azure Quantum platform. Nvidia is focused on the synergy between quantum systems and classical AI accelerated computing.

The core of this investment logic is: if the commercialization pace of quantum computing is slower than expected, the basic business of large tech can still provide downside protection; if it is faster than expected, these companies can also benefit. Of course, the trade-off is that upside elasticity is far smaller than that of pure-play quantum computing stocks.

Quantum Computing ETFs: 2026 Return Performance

For investors who want to participate in the quantum computing theme in an indexed, ETF-style way, ETFs provide another tool. Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) recorded a year-to-date return of 54.2% as of June 2, 2026—about 5 times the S&P 500’s gain over the same period (11%)—and more than twice the Nasdaq 100’s gain over the same period (21%). The fund tracks the BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index with equal weighting, holding approximately 70 to 80 stocks, with an expense ratio of 0.40%. As of February 2026, QTUM’s assets under management exceeded $3.5 billion and it received a five-star Morningstar rating. Another ETF, iShares Quantum Computing UCITS ETF (QANT), had a year-to-date return of 30.79% as of June 18.

The advantage of ETFs is that they diversify away idiosyncratic execution risk and technical-route risk tied to individual companies. However, the disadvantages are also clear. QTUM’s equal-weight structure means it holds both multiple highly volatile pure-play quantum stocks and relatively stable semiconductor companies, resulting in return characteristics that fall between the two.

Risk Analysis: Overvaluation, Technological Uncertainty, and Timing Gaps in Commercialization

The rise of quantum computing stocks in 2026 is built on a triple narrative: technological breakthroughs, policy support, and revenue growth. However, based on verifiable financial data, the following risk dimensions need to be incorporated into the assessment framework.

A disconnect between valuation and revenue. IonQ’s price-to-sales ratio is about 99x, while Rigetti is supported by $4.4 million in quarterly revenue to underpin a market capitalization of about $7.107 billion. Even if one assumes these companies can sustain triple-digit revenue growth, current valuations still imply extremely optimistic long-term assumptions. IonQ’s internal forecast predicts a market capitalization of $65 billion by 2030, but that forecast itself is built on a premise of rapid industry growth, and carries significant uncertainty.

Uncertainty in technical routes. Multiple technology paths—superconducting, ion traps, photonics, neutral atoms—are evolving in parallel, and it is still unclear which one will first achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing. In the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, quantum processors cannot yet reliably run practical, real-world algorithms. From today’s technology level to Quantum Advantage by 2039, there are substantial engineering challenges.

Timing gaps in commercialization. UBS’s predicted Quantum Advantage in 2039 is still 13 years away. During this period, these companies must continue to invest in R&D and raise capital while dealing with the tension between revenue growth and expanding losses. IonQ’s operating cash outflow in the first quarter was $151 million; at the current burn rate, continued operations depend heavily on the financing capacity of the capital markets.

High volatility in market sentiment. The beta coefficients for the quantum computing sector are generally elevated—IONQ’s beta is 4.77. In early 2025, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s remarks that “practical quantum computers will take 20 years” temporarily hit quantum stock sentiment. Any changes in policy, technology, or funding could trigger sharp volatility.

Conclusion

UBS’s Quantum Advantage forecast for 2039 provides capital markets with a clear long-term reference coordinate. As a result, the four pure-play quantum stocks—IONQ, QBTS, RGTI, and QUBT—entered a broader institutional spotlight in 2026, while large tech stocks such as IBM and Alphabet and Microsoft offer another participation approach with distinctly different risk-reward characteristics. The strong performance of quantum computing ETFs such as QTUM (54% return as of 2026 to date) further confirms that market attention to the theme is rapidly warming up.

However, high valuations, technological uncertainty, long commercialization cycles, and extreme stock-price volatility create constraints that cannot be ignored in this thematic investment. Whether quantum computing will truly achieve Quantum Advantage in 2039, and which companies will benefit at that time, remains a proposition that can only be validated over the coming decades. For investors, the key is to distinguish between the “narrative” and the “fundamentals,” and to make allocation decisions based on a thorough understanding of risks and one’s own risk tolerance.