SK Hynix surpasses Samsung: How HBM is rewriting South Korea's semiconductor landscape in the AI era

On June 22, 2026, the Korean capital market ushered in a historic moment. SK Hynix (000660.KS) stock price surged to a record high of 2.95 million won during trading, with a market value reaching 208.1 trillion won, surpassing Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)’s 207.3 trillion won for the first time. This marked the first time since November 2000 that Samsung Electronics, which had held the top spot in Korea’s market capitalization for 26 consecutive years, was overtaken.

Behind this historic leap is a power reshuffle in the storage chip industry driven by generative AI. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), as a core component of AI accelerators, is fundamentally changing the competitive logic of the traditional DRAM market. SK Hynix, long ranked second in Korea’s market value behind Samsung Electronics, has gained a strategic advantage through precise bets on HBM technology pathways and first-mover benefits. Not only has it achieved a phased victory in direct competition with Samsung, but it has also established an irreplaceable strategic position in the global AI storage supply chain. This article systematically dissects the deep logic behind this semiconductor industry power shift, from the evolution of the HBM market landscape, differences in technological routes between the giants, NVIDIA’s supply chain game, to valuation logic from an investor’s perspective.

Explosive Growth of the HBM Market: From Niche to Strategic High Ground

The expansion rate of the HBM market is redefining the growth curve of the entire storage chip industry. Industry data shows that in 2026, the global HBM market size is expected to reach $54.6 billion, a 58% increase from $34.6 billion in 2025. This scale accounts for nearly 40% of the overall DRAM market. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecasts that the total global semiconductor market will reach $97.5 billion in 2026, with HBM’s share rapidly climbing.

On the demand side, accelerated iterations of NVIDIA’s Blackwell and Rubin platforms, along with the trend of large-scale self-developed AI chips by cloud service providers (CSPs), form a dual engine driving HBM demand. The evolution of AI models from training to inference and proxy AI further sustains high-performance storage needs. On the supply side, although major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have allocated 70% of new or adjustable capacity to HBM, the capacity gap still reaches 50% to 60%. This supply-demand imbalance provides structural support for high pricing of HBM products.

In this super cycle, HBM is no longer a peripheral product in the traditional DRAM cycle but has become a scarce strategic asset that determines the overall performance of AI systems.

SK Hynix vs Samsung: The Shift in HBM Market Share

Regarding the distribution of market share in the HBM segment, different agencies report slightly different figures due to varying statistical methods, but SK Hynix’s leading position is confirmed across all data sources.

TrendForce data indicates that in 2026, SK Hynix accounts for about 50% of global HBM bit production, Samsung about 28%, and Micron about 22%. Counterpoint Research’s forecast is more detailed, estimating SK Hynix’s market share in the HBM4 segment at around 54%, Samsung at 28%, and Micron at 18% in 2026. Visible Alpha’s Q1 2026 global HBM market data shows SK Hynix’s market share at approximately 51.4%, Samsung at 21.2%, and Micron at 27.4%. Other market analyses suggest SK Hynix holds 61% of the global HBM market, with Samsung at 17% and Micron at 21%.

Despite these differences, the consensus is clear: SK Hynix is in an absolute leading position in the HBM market, with Samsung in second place but significantly behind the leader. However, after experiencing setbacks in HBM3E certification and supply ramp-up, Samsung is accelerating to catch up during the HBM4/HBM4E window.

Looking at the overall DRAM market, Samsung still maintains a comprehensive advantage. In Q1 2026, Samsung’s DRAM revenue reached $37.32 billion, up 93.4% quarter-over-quarter, with a 38.5% market share ranking first; SK Hynix’s revenue was $27.98 billion, up 62.5% QoQ, with a 28.8% share, ranking second. This comparison clearly shows that SK Hynix’s market value surpassing Samsung’s is not based on overall DRAM dominance but on its absolute control of the high-margin HBM niche, which provides valuation premiums.

Technological Pathways and Capacity Race: HBM4 as the Next Decisive Factor

The generational iteration of HBM technology is accelerating, with HBM4 seen as a critical node determining the next phase of competition.

Samsung is progressing fastest in HBM4 certification, expected to complete certification in Q2 2026 and begin mass production thereafter. Samsung plans to increase the monthly capacity of 1c DRAM process nodes to about 150k wafers by the end of 2026 for HBM4 mass production, and is building a large advanced DRAM line at Pyeongtaek P4 with a target monthly capacity of about 120k wafers. Samsung also aims to triple HBM total output by 2026 compared to 2025, with over half being HBM4. Sales of Samsung’s HBM4 chips have already exceeded $1 billion in the first four months after launch, with annual sales expected to surpass $10 billion.

SK Hynix is actively advancing mass production of HBM4 and HBM4E. On June 18, 2026, SK Hynix announced it had provided samples of its new generation HBM4E to major clients. Its 12-layer stacked HBM4E can reach transmission speeds of 16Gbps per pin, with power efficiency improved by over 20% compared to previous generations. SK Hynix’s 16-layer stacked HBM4 products reach 48GB capacity, with overall bandwidth surpassing 2TB/s.

Notably, Samsung announced at the end of May 2026 that it had begun shipping HBM4E samples to clients, using a 12-layer stacked design based on the sixth-generation 10nm-class (1c) DRAM process, combined with its self-developed 4nm logic base chips, achieving over 20% performance improvement over HBM4. It took only about three months from sample delivery of HBM4 in February to shipment of HBM4E samples in May, demonstrating Samsung’s accelerated pursuit.

On the supply chain front, on June 8, 2026, NVIDIA and SK Hynix announced a multi-year strategic partnership to jointly develop the next-generation AI memory and expand supply. Meanwhile, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that all three major memory manufacturers are qualified to supply HBM4 chips to NVIDIA. This means that although SK Hynix has deep ties with NVIDIA during the HBM3/E era, Samsung and Micron have also gained access to NVIDIA’s supply chain during the HBM4 era, intensifying the competition.

Valuation Logic Reconstructed: From Cyclical Stocks to Growth Stocks Paradigm Shift

SK Hynix’s market cap surpassing Samsung Electronics reflects more than just performance divergence; it signifies a fundamental restructuring of valuation logic in the storage chip industry.

From stock performance, since 2026, SK Hynix’s share price has increased by over 340%, while Samsung Electronics rose about 200%. Over the past year, SK Hynix’s stock surged 1024%, far exceeding Samsung’s approximately 498% increase. However, on June 23, the Korean stock market experienced sharp volatility, with the KOSPI index plunging nearly 10%, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both falling over 12%. This volatility reminds investors that even in an AI-driven structural growth cycle, short-term market risks remain.

In terms of valuation metrics, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics’ expected P/E ratios for 2026 are 7.82x and 7.80x respectively, both significantly lower than Micron’s 17.73x. Hanwha Investment & Securities on June 22 sharply raised SK Hynix’s target price from 1.63 million won to 4.3 million won, using a 10x P/E framework. Several brokerages have raised SK Hynix’s target prices over the past two months: SK Securities to 3 million won, KB Securities to 3 million won with a forecasted 78.1% operating margin in 2026, Citigroup to 3.1 million won, and J.P. Morgan to 3 million won.

Nomura Securities stated in a report, “This time, it’s really different,” believing that the valuation logic of the storage industry is undergoing a paradigm-level leap, with risk premiums aligning more with TSMC rather than traditional cyclical stocks. The core reason is that the expansion of long-term supply agreements (LTA) and the surge in HBM demand have fundamentally changed the profitability visibility and volatility of storage chips. Hanwha Investment & Securities predicts that even if the storage market weakens, SK Hynix’s operating profit margin will remain above 30%, compared to below 10% or losses during past downturns.

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Conclusion

SK Hynix’s market cap surpassing Samsung Electronics marks a milestone in the transfer of semiconductor industry power in the AI era. This historic leap reflects the industry shift of HBM from niche to mainstream, the reshaping of competitive patterns driven by technological route choices, and the capital market’s revaluation of storage chips from cyclical to growth paradigms.

However, the competition is far from over. Samsung’s accelerated pursuit of HBM4/HBM4E, Micron’s expanding share in the HBM market, and NVIDIA’s supply chain diversification all suggest that the next phase of the AI storage war will intensify. For investors, understanding the technological evolution of HBM, capacity distribution, and the redefinition of valuation logic is essential for making rational judgments amid this structural transformation.

The Gate platform’s USDT-based stock trading mode provides a low-threshold, efficient channel for crypto users to participate in global semiconductor giants’ investments. Whether SK Hynix or Samsung Electronics, these storage chip giants at the core of the AI industry chain merit ongoing attention and in-depth research.