SpaceX (SPCX) drops over 30% two weeks after listing: Why did the largest IPO in history face a valuation re-evaluation?

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX listed on NASDAQ under the stock ticker SPCX, completing the largest initial public offering in human history—raising approximately $75 billion—priced at $135 per share, with an IPO valuation of about $1.77 trillion. The stock opened the first day and surged more than 19%, closing at $160.95. In the following days, retail capital rushed in—during the first week after listing, retail net buying of SPCX reached $405 million, exceeding the total retail net buy-in of the “Big Seven” U.S. stocks over the same period. On June 16, the share price hit a historical high of $225.64, and the company’s market cap temporarily neared $3 trillion.

However, the celebration lasted less than a week. Starting June 18, SPCX fell for three consecutive trading days, with a single-day drop of 16% on June 22, closing at $154.60. From the historical high, the cumulative decline exceeded 31%; about $600 billion in market value evaporated over three trading days. By June 23, the share price had fallen below the IPO day’s closing price, and nearly all investors who chased at high levels were trapped.

Why did this “largest IPO in history” retrace so rapidly within two weeks? For investors holding SPCX, is this round of pullback merely short-term sentiment volatility, or the beginning of a valuation reset? From four dimensions—the lock-up structure, bond issuance pressure, valuation divergence, and business fundamentals—this article systematically breaks down the underlying logic behind the selloff.

Why is SPCX giving back most of its gains in two weeks?

Liquidity’s double-edged sword: an ultra-thin float magnifies two-way volatility

SPCX’s initial surge and subsequent plunge share the same structural root—an extremely low public float. Data shows that currently only about 4.2% of SpaceX’s outstanding shares are available for public trading. This extreme scarcity of supply amplifies buy-side impact during rallies: as retail and institutional funds concentrate and pour in, the stock price quickly pushed to $225. In the downturn, the same liquidity vacuum also causes any sell orders of even modest size to trigger sharp drops. SPCX saw an approximately 30% volatility range within just four trading days of listing, which is rare for a company with a trillion-dollar market cap.

A $20 billion bond issuance: the market’s negative read on “cash burn”

One of the direct triggers for this decline was SpaceX’s announcement of its first entry into the investment-grade corporate bond market, planning to raise at least $20 billion. The proceeds are mainly intended to repay bridge loans maturing in 2027 and to continue investing in the AI business.

The market’s interpretation of this news leaned negative. A company that had just completed a $75 billion IPO and then launched a $20 billion bond financing was viewed by some investors as a signal of “cash flow pressure.” In 2025, SpaceX’s AI division had an operating cash outflow of $6.4 billion, while revenue was only $3.2 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the company also made $7.7 billion in capital expenditures in the AI sector. Against the backdrop of not having achieved GAAP profitability (2025 net loss of $4.94 billion, and an expected 2026 net loss of $89.2 billion), large-scale debt financing inevitably raised concerns about the health of the balance sheet.

Lock-up countdown: expectations of supply shock get priced in early

The lock-up period is another important variable suppressing SPCX’s stock price. SpaceX’s lock-up structure is relatively complex. The first batch of insider selling windows is expected to open after the end of late July to August following earnings reports, when about 20% of shares will be unlocked. In addition, if the stock price remains above $175.50 for five trading days, an extra 10% of shares will be unlocked early. Around August 21 and September 10, approximately 7% of shares will be unlocked each time. By early September, up to 44% of SpaceX shares may be permitted to be sold. The standard 180-day lock-up period is expected to fully expire in mid-December 2026. Some of Elon Musk’s and core shareholders’ holdings are locked until June 2027.

Strategists at research firm 22V Research noted that these unlocks will increase SPCX’s public float by about 900%. Even though index inclusion (such as NASDAQ 100 and MSCI) may bring some passive buying to offset the impact, the expectation of a large supply increase in the near term has already been reflected in the stock price—meaning the market is pricing in supply shocks over the coming months.

Valuation controversy: how much is SpaceX worth at a $1.77 trillion valuation?

The extent of valuation disagreement for SPCX is extremely rare on Wall Street. The IPO price of $135 implies a valuation of about $1.77 trillion. Even after a sharp pullback, as of the close on June 22 at $154.60, the market cap still implied is about $2.03 trillion.

The bullish camp believes SpaceX is a scarce asset combining “space + internet + AI” in one. New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu set a 12-month target price at $165, Wolfe Research set a target at $175 with an “outperform the broader market” rating, and Arete Research set a target at $401 on June 18. According to S&P Global’s compilation of five analysts’ ratings, SPCX’s consensus rating is “Buy,” with an average target price of $164.

The bearish camp is equally clear-cut. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens estimates SpaceX’s fair value at about $780 billion, which is 55% below the IPO valuation. He points out that a $1.77 trillion valuation implies “a 67x price-to-sales ratio,” which is three times Nvidia’s price-to-sales valuation based on its recent fiscal year and stock-based valuation. CFRA issued a “Sell” rating on IPO day with a $115 target. KeyBanc gave a “sector-weight” (neutral) rating on June 22, arguing that “although SpaceX will maintain a leading position in areas such as space launches, most of the long-term value has already been price in.” Even some research institutions have suggested a target range of $21–$28—an extreme distribution from $63 to $401—which underscores how highly uncertain the current valuation is.

In terms of valuation multiples, even after the pullback, SPCX’s price-to-sales ratio remains over 90, while the S&P 500’s overall price-to-sales ratio is about 3.7. For a company with $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue and a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion, the market is clearly paying a very high premium for future growth—or, in other words, paying for the “Musk premium.”

The true picture of three growth tracks

To understand SPCX’s valuation, it is necessary to break down its business structure. The market’s pricing logic for SpaceX is not based on a single business model, but on the overlay of three distinct narratives.

Starlink: the core asset that is the only one anchored by traditional valuation models

Starlink is currently SpaceX’s only profitable division. In the first quarter of 2026, Starlink generated revenue of about $3.3 billion, accounting for 69% of SpaceX’s total revenue of $4.7 billion. In the same quarter, the division achieved operating profit of $1.19 billion, with an operating margin of 63%. As of the end of March 2026, Starlink had about 9,600 satellites in orbit and 10.3 million subscribers, with service coverage across 164 countries or markets.

Industry institutions expect Starlink’s full-year 2026 revenue to grow by about 80% to $18.7 billion, representing 79% of SpaceX’s total revenue. However, risks remain. Starlink’s average monthly revenue per user has declined from $99 in 2023 continuously to about $66 in the first quarter of 2026—whether this “expand by trading price for volume” path can be sustained is a key variable for long-term valuation.

Launch services: the market leader, but thin on profits

SpaceX’s space division—the absolute dominant player in the global rocket launch market—had revenue of only $619 million in the first quarter of 2026, and about $4.1 billion for all of 2025. In 2025, the division posted a loss of $657 million. Although launch services are the brand foundation and strategic moat of SpaceX, in terms of financial contribution they are far from enough to support a trillion-dollar valuation.

AI computing power: the third growth curve taking shape

AI is the most imagination-driven and also the most uncertain part of SpaceX’s valuation. In 2025, the AI division recorded a loss of $6.4 billion. But SpaceX is transforming its Colossus AI data centers from a cost center into a revenue engine. On June 22, SpaceX announced that it had signed a $6.3 billion compute agreement with open-source AI startup Reflection AI. Starting from July 1, 2026, Reflection will pay SpaceX $150 million per month until 2029. Previously, SpaceX also leased Colossus 1 to Anthropic, earning $1.25 billion in monthly revenue.

These AI compute agreements are creating a brand-new recurring revenue stream for SpaceX. On an annualized basis, contracts with Anthropic and Reflection alone could bring substantial recurring revenue. The question, however, is that AI compute leasing is an increasingly competitive market. Whether SpaceX can maintain its current pricing power and customer stickiness still needs to be validated over time.

How to participate in SPCX through Gate

Gate users can trade SPCX real shares directly on the platform via the “Stock Zone,” with the path Gate App - TradFi - Stocks - search SPCX. This zone supports USDT trading, with a minimum order size of 0.01 shares, lowering the participation threshold. Previously, as part of Gate’s “Direct IPO” first-phase project, SPCX distributed shares to participating users; once the allocated shares list, they can be traded normally without a lock-up period. In addition, Gate has also launched SPCXUSDT perpetual contracts (up to 50x leverage) and 3x long/short leveraged ETF products, allowing users to choose different tools based on their risk preferences.

Conclusion

Over two weeks, SPCX fell from $225.64 to $154.60. On the surface, this looks like a typical “post-IPO surge followed by retracement.” But beneath the surface, multiple structural factors are intertwined: the volatility-amplifying effect of an extremely thin float, cash-flow concerns triggered by the $20 billion bond issuance, expectations of supply shock as the lock-up period approaches, and the intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears across the valuation range from $1.77 trillion to $2 trillion.

From a fundamentals perspective, Starlink’s profitability, the new revenue stream brought by AI compute agreements, and SpaceX’s monopoly position in space launches form the core pillars supporting long-term value. But from a valuation perspective, even with a 31% pullback, SPCX’s price-to-sales ratio is still over 90, and the company is still expected to maintain GAAP losses in 2026. The huge gap between Morningstar’s estimated fair value of $780 billion and the current $2 trillion market cap indicates that whether this pullback is a “golden pit” or the beginning of a valuation reversion remains inconclusive for now.

For investors, understanding SPCX is not about treating it like an “ordinary stock.” It is the ultimate public-market vehicle for the “Musk concept,” and its pricing includes substantial, hard-to-quantify founder premium, narrative premium, and scarcity premium. Unlocking under the lock-up schedule, progress on bond issuance, the ARPU trend of Starlink, and the execution of AI compute contracts will be the key variables to track in the coming quarters. Whether participating via spot, tokenized shares, or perpetual contracts, risk management should come first—when the float is only 4% and volatility is above 30% over two weeks, any lapse in position management could come with a steep price.