pre mkt thoughts 23 Jun 26

Right on schedule - just after i made the case to bid protection and to shear off leverage in my notes yesterday, we see Asian and overnight markets hit by selling. KOSPI was down more than 5%, triggering a halt and NKY itself is down 2%. US yields are roughly 3bps higher on both the 10 and 30Y.
Memory names like $SKHYNIX were hit particularly hard with it falling 10%, $285A was not spared as well, falling over 10%. $7709 HK has seen its assets balloon to 17Bn - which further increases the fragility within the sector. $MU and $SNDK are also trading 5% weaker overall. $MU earnings are coming up as well, which has usually been a negative price catalyst for the company.
Neoclouds in thin overnight trading are also about 5% weaker - this comes on top of the weakness seen yesterday in NY markets.
In my tele channel yesterday, i shared some potential structures for hedges - 30JUN SPX 7400/7300/7200 put fly @ roughly a 12x multiplier. Whilst the market has already started falling, protection is now more expensive, it is still not too late to bid some "cheap insurance".... as what i mention before...buy an umbrella before you need it!
In my view, this selling that is coming on is technical in nature. However, given that positioning is thick within semis, we can definitely see further pain as the marginal buyer gets stopped out. Areas of interest for me are $245 for $NBIS, $610 for $SMH
Good luck!