Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) has fallen over 98% in two years: Why is the myth of 300 million users struggling to support the token's value?

In the summer of 2024, a Telegram clicker mini-game called Hamster Kombat swept the world at an astonishing speed. Players only need to click on hamsters on the screen to earn game currency, then upgrade the "cryptocurrency exchange" through simulated management gameplay—this minimalistic interaction logic attracted over 300 million registered users within just six months. In the same year, on September 26th, the native token HMSTR was launched on mainstream exchanges such as Gate.io and Binance, with an issuance price of about $0.005. However, in less than two years, HMSTR's price has fallen over 98% from its all-time high, with a market cap shrunk to approximately $11.12 million.

As of June 23, 2026, according to Gate.io market data, HMSTR is priced at $0.0001728, down 10.19% in 24 hours, with an intraday fluctuation range of $0.0001649 to $0.0002196. Over the past 7 days, it has decreased by 1.65%, over the past 30 days increased by 22.04%, and over the past year declined by 76.81%. Its market cap is about $11.12 million, ranking 1,013th in the cryptocurrency market, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.63B. This trading volume to market cap ratio exceeds 230 times, indicating extremely high turnover and speculative trading characteristics.

The Underlying Logic of Phenomenal Rise

The explosion of Hamster Kombat is no coincidence. The project is built on the TON blockchain and presented as a Telegram mini-application, naturally reaching Telegram’s huge user base. The "click-to-earn" mechanism greatly lowers the barrier to user participation, while the simulated management setting of "cryptocurrency exchange CEO" adds strategic depth to the game. The project maintains user activity through daily tasks like combinations and passwords, and achieves viral spread via referral and fission mechanisms.

According to the official white paper, the core vision of the project is to bring 1 billion Web2 users into Web3. From a user growth perspective, this goal has achieved a phased success—300 million registered users, covering 190 countries, with over 1.3 million token holders. The project's official Telegram channel once became the most subscribed channel worldwide.

Discrepancy Between Price and User Data

However, explosive growth in user scale has not translated into sustained support for the token price. HMSTR's price dropped about 50% in the first week after launch due to massive "farmer" sell-offs. Since then, the price has continued to decline: around $0.003 in October 2024, about $0.001 in mid-2025, and by June 2026, it had fallen into the $0.00017 range.

The decline in user activity is equally alarming. According to third-party data, Hamster Kombat's monthly active users dropped from approximately 300 million at its peak to about 13 million in 2026, a decrease of 96%. Its official Telegram announcement channel's subscribers fell from 60.7 million to 55 million, with an average daily loss of over 200k subscribers. Google Trends data shows that the search popularity of "Hamster Kombat" plummeted from a peak of 100 points in September 2024 to 3 points in October.

Structural Challenges of the Token Economy Model

HMSTR's total supply is fixed at 100 billion tokens. As of January 2026, about 200k tokens are in circulation, accounting for 64.38% of the total supply. In the token distribution plan, approximately 60% is allocated for community airdrops, with the remaining distributed to the team, marketing, and ecosystem development.

This economic model faces several structural challenges. First, the monthly inflation of about 0.15% to 0.20% of the circulating supply continues to exert downward pressure on the price. Second, an estimated 64.38B HMSTR tokens will be unlocked throughout 2026, further increasing market selling pressure. Third, airdropped users tend to sell tokens immediately upon receipt, creating ongoing supply shocks.

In the September 2024 airdrop, only 131 million of the 300 million players qualified, with 2.3 million accounts disqualified due to cheating. On average, each qualified user received only about $8 worth of tokens, far below market expectations, leading to dissatisfaction within the community.

Ecosystem Transition and Second Season Progress

Faced with user loss and falling prices, the project team launched the "HamsterVerse" ecosystem expansion plan. In 2025, they introduced Hamster Network, a Layer 2 extension optimized for gaming. In 2026, the project entered its second season, adding new mechanisms such as referral systems, collectible cards, and prize pools. The team also plans to integrate NFTs as in-game assets and develop progressive web applications compatible across multiple platforms.

However, whether these measures can effectively reverse user decline remains to be seen. Some analysts point out that the case of Hamster Kombat reveals a common pattern—"viral user acquisition, airdrops, supply shocks, continuous price declines, user collapse"—which has become a typical lifecycle for click-to-earn projects.

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment

From current data, HMSTR faces multiple risks. Price-wise, it has fallen over 98% from its all-time high, and over the past 7 days, it remains in a downward trend. User-wise, monthly active users have decreased by 96%. Economically, ongoing unlocks and inflation pressures have not eased.

While the project’s ongoing initiatives like Layer 2 chains, derivative games, and DAO governance could potentially bring new growth points, their effectiveness has yet to be validated by the market. The case of Hamster Kombat demonstrates that in the Web3 gaming space, there is no inherent positive correlation between user scale and token value—ultimately, product sustainability depends on whether the economic model can balance supply and demand and whether user retention mechanisms are effective.

As of June 23, 2026, market sentiment toward HMSTR is neutral. In the absence of clear signals of user growth recovery or demand-side improvement, its risk-reward ratio remains tilted toward the negative. For investors interested in the GameFi sector, the rise and fall of Hamster Kombat offers a case worth in-depth study—it demonstrates both the enormous potential of user acquisition in Web3 gaming and the deep challenges of converting traffic into sustainable value.

Conclusion

The three-year trajectory of Hamster Kombat condenses the most typical cycle narrative of the GameFi sector: leveraging extremely low participation barriers to mobilize hundreds of millions of users, yet failing to turn social fission into value accumulation due to the unidirectional release of token economic models and lack of user retention mechanisms. HMSTR’s long decline from $0.005 to $0.00017 is not just a project failure but a natural return of the "click-to-earn" paradigm after supply-demand imbalance and speculative downturn. As the market gradually loses its illusions, the core question remains unresolved—how to build a sustainable on-chain economic cycle that truly integrates gameplay and financial attributes. The answer to this may determine whether the next wave of phenomenal applications can cross the cycle gap.