One side, 175 million USD long BTC, the other side, 125 million USD short ETH—same whale, playing a big game.

Today’s data gave me chills.

On-chain monitoring detected two large orders happening simultaneously:

On the BTC side, two whales combined opened a total of 2,754 BTC long positions, worth $175 million. One opened at 64,130, with a liquidation price of 59,076; the other opened at 64,508, with a liquidation price of 61,723. Currently, one is floating at a loss of 500k, the other at 750k.

On the ETH side, the address pension-usdt.eth, marked by the market as “ETH’s largest short seller,” increased its short position from 30k ETH to 50k ETH, worth about $85.28 million. Plus, another whale holds a short of 23k ETH—total short positions on ETH amount to approximately $125 million.

BTC long $175 million, ETH short $125 million.

Same day, same market, whales took completely opposite positions on two assets.

Do you think this is a disagreement between bulls and bears?

Most likely, it’s a hedge by the same entity.

Think carefully—who would bet $175 million on BTC long while betting $125 million on ETH short?

Retail investors? Impossible. Retail doesn’t have that capacity.

Two unrelated whales executing opposite trades on the same day? Very unlikely.

The most reasonable explanation: it’s an institutional or a single super-large investor hedging across assets.

The logic is simple—I’m bullish on BTC, bearish on ETH, but I don’t want to be naked short ETH and get burned. So I go long BTC to protect my position, and short ETH to directly express my view.

This isn’t a bet on BTC rising or ETH falling. It’s a bet on one thing:

The BTC/ETH ratio continuing to widen.

How high is the chance of this judgment?

Let’s look at the data.

Today, the ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to around 0.027—back to early 2023 levels. Since the start of the year, BTC has dropped about 11%, ETH about 32%.

ETH has fallen three times more than BTC.

And funds are still flowing from ETH to BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio dropping to 0.027 reflects that the “blood-sucking” pattern of Bitcoin absorption continues.

Whales are adding to their positions—long BTC, short ETH—implying:

“0.027 isn’t the bottom, it needs to go even lower.”

What’s the macro backdrop for this judgment?

The Federal Reserve has a 76% chance of raising interest rates in September. In a tightening environment, capital naturally concentrates into “harder” assets. BTC has ongoing spot ETF inflows, supply scarcity after halving, and passive allocations from players like BlackRock. What about ETH?

Nothing.

ETH’s “legitimacy” is still being questioned. Today, Ethlabs was established—a nonprofit founded by five former Ethereum Foundation researchers, supported by Joe Lubin and BitMine. Sounds like good news, right?

But think carefully—Ethereum Foundation staff are leaving, and they need to set up new teams for R&D—this itself signals problems within the EF.

In an ecosystem losing core developers, why would institutions give it a premium?

But ETH shorts aren’t risk-free arbitrage either.

The address pension-usdt.eth has already realized over $39.6 million in trading profits. After closing a BTC short position with a profit of $3.56 million on June 4, it immediately opened a short position of 50,000 ETH, three times larger.

This whale is smart, but not a god.

ETH’s current price is around 1,720. If ETH is pushed back above 1,807, the combined liquidation strength on major CEXs could reach $827 million.

$827 million in short fuel—enough to push ETH’s price sky-high.

Once the price moves back above 1,800, the 50k ETH short position could trigger $85 million in liquidations.

It looks like it’s shorting, but it’s also gambling with its life.

So, what’s the actual win rate for this trade?

I’ll be straightforward: the probability that the BTC/ETH ratio continues to widen is over 65%.

The reasoning is simple—

The macro environment doesn’t support ETH outperforming BTC.

Under rate hike expectations, institutions will embrace the “digital gold” narrative, not the “world computer” narrative. ETF inflows are going into BTC, not ETH. The supply scarcity after halving belongs to BTC, not ETH.

But ETH shorts aren’t riskless arbitrage.

1,807 is the collective graveyard for shorts. If ETH is pushed above this level by bulls, over $800 million in liquidations will instantly crush the shorts.

Whales daring to short ETH at 1,720 are betting ETH can’t reach 1,807.

“It’s not that ETH isn’t good enough, but BTC is just too strong this cycle.”

Smart money is already voting with their feet—long BTC, short ETH, betting the ratio will continue to expand.
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