#我的Gate交易时刻 Positive news everywhere but surged then plummeted! The deep market trends for Bitcoin and Ethereum on June 23: Bitcoin keeps bleeding, Ethereum's rebound is just an illusion?

On June 23, the crypto market experienced a typical pattern where good news is quickly followed by bad news: US-Iran negotiations made progress, Bitcoin spot ETF saw five weeks of continuous outflows, institutional holdings kept increasing, and multiple positive factors piled up. Bitcoin once surged past $65,500, but after the spike, there was no support, combined with sudden negative news from the US stock market, causing the market to rapidly turn downward.
What’s more concerning is that Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s lead, with a deeper decline after the surge, ETH/BTC exchange rate continued to fall, market funds crazily flowed into Bitcoin, and Ethereum was completely trapped in a passive bleeding phase. Is this rebound followed by a short-term shakeout, or the start of a new downtrend? As the options contracts approach a massive settlement at the end of Q2, how should the price of coins be positioned over the next month and in the second half of the year? This article combines four dimensions—market prices, macro news, institutional movements, and on-chain data—to comprehensively analyze the current market’s true bullish and bearish landscape.

1. Real-time Market Data: All-round surge then retreat, bulls and bears in a tense tug-of-war
1. Bitcoin: Range-bound between 64,000-64,500 USD, early surge fully retraced by June 23, Bitcoin maintained a narrow fluctuation between 64,000 and 64,500 USD. Relying on positive news from US-Iran negotiations, it quickly gained strength, briefly surging above 65,500 USD, hitting an intraday high. But after the news settled, bullish momentum quickly faded, compounded by negative US stock news, causing prices to drop sharply, retracing most of the gains, now at a critical support/resistance level. Due to exchange time zones and quoting mechanisms, mainstream platforms show slight discrepancies, but overall, the slight upward trend remains.
2. Ethereum: Weak trend hard to reverse, long upper shadow indicates bulls are exhausted
Ethereum’s movement is entirely dependent on Bitcoin, with even weaker performance, currently trading in the weak zone of 1700-1760 USD. Last night, it surged with Bitcoin to a high of 1779 USD, then experienced a cliff dive, falling back to around 1724 USD, forming a super long upper shadow on the daily chart, clearly signaling the end of the short-term bullish rebound.

2. Macro News Breakdown: Visible positives, why can’t the market rally?
Many traders are puzzled: Why, despite the inflow of spot ETF funds, continuous accumulation by giants, and eased geopolitical risks—triple positive signals—can’t the price keep climbing? The core reason is that short-term positives have been realized, but combined with sudden negative shocks from the US stock market, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance has long suppressed the market, creating a perfect hedge of bullish and bearish signals.
✅ The four major hard-core positives supporting the market: the confidence to prevent deep declines
- Geopolitical risks eased, inflation pressures eased, high-level US-Iran-Switzerland talks made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to finalize a cooperation agreement within 60 days. Iran’s oil re-enters the global supply, and international oil prices hit a 16-week low. Falling oil prices directly ease global inflation, giving the Fed room to pause rate hikes, providing a breathing space for risk assets, which is the main trigger for Bitcoin’s short-term surge.
- Continuous accumulation by listed companies, rumors of major players’ collapses thoroughly dispelled. MicroStrategy (now Strategy) increased holdings for the third consecutive week, buying 520 BTC from June 15-21, costing $39.4 million. The CEO publicly clarified the risk of preferred stock liquidation, dispelling rumors of major players’ collapses. Currently, the company’s Bitcoin holdings are valued close to $57 billion, with long-term institutional confidence firmly intact.
- Spot ETF reaches a critical turning point. After five weeks of outflows, overnight US stock market opened with a net inflow of $128 million into Bitcoin spot ETF, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund restarting large-scale purchases, ending five weeks of continuous capital outflows. Historical data shows that in mid-June, the market also saw a single-day net inflow of $85.8 million, indicating institutional bottom-fishing funds have quietly entered, though the volume is still insufficient to reverse the trend.
- Ethereum ecosystem receives major positive news. To address development shortcomings, Ethlabs, a non-profit founded by a core researcher from the Ethereum Foundation, has gained strong support from Ethereum’s founders, leading investors, and top ecosystem companies. Ethlabs will focus on RWA tokenization, on-chain AI ecosystems, and stablecoin development, filling gaps in Ethereum’s R&D. Meanwhile, leading institution Bitmine increased its ETH holdings by 52,203 ETH, approaching 5% of total supply, showing long-term institutional optimism for Ethereum’s future value.

❌ Four major negative factors: the culprits suppressing two rebounds
- SpaceX’s billion-dollar debt issuance shocks US stocks, putting risk assets under collective pressure. SpaceX announced plans to issue $20 billion in corporate bonds to fund AI infrastructure, causing its stock to plunge 16.4% in one day, with the Nasdaq down 1.33%. As crypto is a high-risk asset class with strong correlation to US stocks, the overall market weakened, directly killing the bullish rebound.
- The Fed’s hawkish stance remains unchanged, the strong dollar cycle not over. The Fed kept interest rates steady but continued hawkish signals, with expectations of rate hikes still present. The strong dollar continues to suppress all non-US risk assets. As long as the Fed does not pivot to rate cuts, a sustained bullish trend in crypto is unlikely.
- Bitcoin’s bloodsucking effect is at full throttle, Ethereum funds continue to flee. Current risk-off sentiment intensifies, with funds flocking into Bitcoin for safety, causing ETH/BTC to fall to 0.027. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s on-chain TVL (Total Value Locked) has halved from $95 billion to $40 billion, with DeFi ecosystem funds massively retreating. Spot buying is scarce, and rebounds rely solely on leveraged contracts, making the market extremely fragile.
- Market panic is at its peak, traders are overwhelmingly bearish. CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is only 21, in extreme fear; Korea’s panic index is as low as 20. Market data predicts only a 51.5% chance that Bitcoin will hold above $64,000 today, and just a 2.1% chance to stay above $68,000. Most traders are pessimistic about a short-term breakout.

3. Technical Analysis
- In terms of technical patterns, Bitcoin’s daily and 4-hour charts are all in a bearish alignment, with prices continuously under the 60-day moving average, indicating a still-weak medium-term trend. However, daily RSI shows bullish divergence, and MACD momentum is waning, suggesting downside is exhausted. The likely scenario is sideways consolidation with limited downside. The focus is on the upcoming $10 billion options settlement on June 26, which could trigger sharp short-term volatility, with market makers’ hedging possibly leading to a short squeeze.
- Ethereum’s technicals are even weaker than Bitcoin’s, with all cycle moving averages in a bearish alignment, and prices firmly below the 20-day moving average. Currently, the price is stuck near the middle Bollinger Band; a confirmed break below $1,700 could open the downside space. To reverse the weakness, a strong volume breakout above $1,800 is needed.

4. Short-term + Second-half Outlook:
**1-4 Weeks Short-term:** Range-bound oscillation, avoid chasing highs or selling lows
- Bitcoin: Maintain a broad range of $60,000-$67,000. Holding above $65,000 can be cautiously bullish for a rebound toward $67,000; breaking below $63,000 suggests a correction, with key support at $62,000-$60,000 for phased bottom-fishing. No signs of a large directional move expected; consolidation is the main theme.
- Ethereum: Weak oscillation between $1,700-$1,800. Holding above $1,700 allows for short-term rebounds, but profits should be taken if it rises above $1,760; a volume-driven breakdown below $1,700 could lead to a decline toward $1,600. Remember: current rebounds are mainly driven by leverage, not spot funds, so avoid heavy long positions.

**2026 Second-half Market Forecast:**
- Bitcoin:
- Optimistic: Fed signals rate cuts in H2 + ETF funds continue inflow, Bitcoin could rebound to $72,000-$78,000.
- Pessimistic: Fed maintains tightening, market continues to grind sideways, range stays at $60,000-$70,000.
- Ethereum:
- Optimistic: Macro liquidity remains ample + ecosystem positives + ETF inflows, Ethereum recovers and breaks above $2,000.
- Pessimistic: Bitcoin’s bleeding persists, on-chain funds keep flowing out, Ethereum remains in a bottoming range of $1,500-$1,700.

All market analysis and price levels in this article are based on publicly available historical data and technical market deduction. They are for sharing market logic only and do not constitute any investment advice for spot or derivatives trading.