6.23 Crude Oil Analysis

The current crude oil market is caught between waning geopolitical sentiment and tightening supply and demand fundamentals, with short-term downward pressure unlikely to alter the medium-term bullish trend.

Recently, the price has been trading sideways around the $80 level, essentially digesting the rapid unwinding of previous geopolitical premiums— as signs of easing US-Iran relations emerge, the expectation of a Strait of Hormuz blockade has faded, and speculative funds that previously flowed in are now orderly exiting, which is the core driver behind the current price correction.

However, this emotional recovery does not conceal the fundamentally tight supply and demand structure. On one hand, even if the Strait reopens, it will take several weeks to clear the backlog of oil tankers, and short-term supply increases are very limited; on the other hand, global commercial inventories have fallen below the five-year average, with a drawdown rate of 4.6 million barrels per day in May, providing a solid safety cushion for oil prices. Meanwhile, the peak summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere has arrived, refinery utilization rates continue to rise, and seasonal increases in end-user consumption are gradually offsetting macro-level demand concerns.

Trading suggestion: Buy at 71-73, target 76-80. $BTC $GT $ETH #Gate直通韩股股票