6.23 Gold Morning Review

Currently, gold is trading within a narrow range around $4,193, with short-term fluctuations in a vacuum of geopolitical easing and policy tightening battles, with the direction approaching a decision.

On the geopolitical front, progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, putting pressure on oil prices to fall back, which somewhat weakens gold's inflation-hedging demand. However, the market also interprets this move as potentially reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates, easing the previous tightening panic, and giving gold a breather, as evidenced by yesterday's rebound from a one-week low.

Nevertheless, policy suppression has not been lifted. New Federal Reserve Chair Powell has sent clear hawkish signals, with the dot plot indicating expectations of rate hikes this year, and market bets on a December rate hike rising to around 89%. The prospect of high interest rates continues to boost the dollar and real yields, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citibank lowering their gold price targets, forming a long-term headwind that cannot be ignored.

On the technical side, the Bollinger middle band at 4196 and upper band at 4210 form a short-term trading range. The golden cross on the KDJ indicates the rebound is not over, but pressure near the upper band is evident. Without new positive catalysts, upward space for gold is limited; key support is at 4180, and a break below would signal weakness.

Overall, gold remains oscillating and slightly strong in the short term, but macro headwinds persist. Trading should follow a range-bound approach, focusing on the resistance at 4210 and support at 4180, waiting for clearer direction.

Trading suggestion: 4150-4170 buy, target 4190-4230.

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