Retail Revolution (14) $BZ Now following PetroChina and Sinopec to buy oil!

We ordinary people now need to understand one thing: in chaotic times, gold, silver, and oil are all national strategic resources.
Currently, gold, silver, and crude oil are all suppressed to relatively low levels, with crude oil especially worth paying close attention to.
1. Currently, Brent crude oil is around $78, and this is essentially due to the market reaction to the news of the memorandum signed between the US and Iran.
The market is short-term trading on “war de-escalation, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s oil returning,” so the geopolitical risk premium has been quickly squeezed out.
2. But I believe that crude oil is not completely weakening now, but has entered a “short-term oversold zone after a sharp drop on news.”
It’s not yet a confirmed bottom on the daily chart, but it’s also no longer suitable for blindly shorting.
First, the geopolitical risk premium has been significantly squeezed out;
Second, supply recovery will not be completed immediately;
Third, inventories are very low, which is the bottom line for oil prices to rebound.
During wartime, countries reduce imports, and inventories are significantly depleted. As long as there is a replenishment demand later, oil prices are likely to be pushed back up.
Fourth, in the short term, there is room below for oil prices, but if US-Iran-Israel flare-ups or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz occur, crude oil can easily surge.
3. The current price can be understood as follows:
$BZ $78 is the market’s default price assuming the US-Iran agreement proceeds smoothly;
$85–90 is the price range where the agreement falters and geopolitical risks reignite;
$95–100 is the price range where the situation in Hormuz, Lebanon, Israel, and Iran spirals out of control again.
4. Finally, when opening a position, be sure to distinguish between $CL and BZ.
CL is US WTI crude oil, which is more affected by US domestic politics, inventories, shale oil, and election cycles;
BZ is international Brent crude oil, which more directly reflects Middle East situations, Hormuz risks, and global shipping risks.
Sometimes their price movements are not synchronized because their short-term pricing cores are different.
After the US midterm elections in November, the two will basically synchronize completely.
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