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This week, my main focus on ETH is on one logic:
Above 1800, it's not where I chase longs, but where I start to watch for short-term reactions.
The reason is simple:
ETH is not currently showing a strong reversal, but a weak rebound.
The daily EMA200 is at 2437, and the weekly EMA200 is at 2616.
The price is only around 1750 now.
That means it's still far from truly regaining strength.
Rising to 1800 doesn't mean the bull is back, it can only be called a relief rally after a big drop.
This week, I divide ETH into three segments:
1750-1800
Current correction zone, can bounce but not solid yet.
1800-1836
First resistance zone.
Around 1836 is the upper band of the daily Bollinger, if it softens here, it indicates the rebound quality is average.
1910-1930
This is the position I want to watch most.
It's close to the daily EMA50, and also a place where liquidity above can be easily swept.
If ETH can't hold around 1930, I tend to think it's just a trap to lure longs.
The above clears out the short positions and pulls in the longs, then I look back to test the previous low.
Below, I first watch 1700-1670.
If this breaks, then look at 1624-1573.
BTC also needs to cooperate here.
BTC's key levels now are 65.4K-66.6K.
If it can't break above, Bitcoin is just a rebound, not a reversal.
Next support levels are 63.6K, then 62.2K.
So, my main direction this week is very simple:
If BTC can't hold above 66.6K,
and ETH can't hold above 1930,
then I will still follow the rebound short plan.
The conditions that would truly change my judgment are also very clear:
ETH is not just touching 1930, but standing firm at 1930-1950 and not retesting downward.
BTC also needs to re-establish above 66.6K.
Otherwise, I won't change my stance just because ETH bounces to 1800.
This move isn't ETH being strong,
it's that it has fallen too much, giving a relief rally.
And the closer the rebound gets to 1930, the more I watch whether it's giving shorts a more comfortable position.