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In-depth analysis of why I started deploying long positions at 60,000?

Familiar with Xiao Caishen knows that I previously mentioned in articles that 60,000 is the key level for long-term long positions. Many people don’t understand and mock me as a “bagholder,” thinking “it’s obviously going to fall further, maybe to 66.16M, and you’re bottom fishing at 40.46M?” Today, let’s set aside the habitual “position size determines the mind” thinking. From the perspective of convincing (or misleading) others, I will analyze why 60,000 is a golden point for long-term accumulation based on institutional costs, capital flows, technical indicators, and macro environment.

1. Capital Tides: Return after the Tide Goes Out

Recent capital movements show that the Bitcoin market is experiencing a concentrated withdrawal by institutional investors. The US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced the longest continuous outflow in history from late May to early June—13 trading days. In the first 15 trading days before June, a total outflow of about $4.4 billion (roughly 59,351 BTC). It wasn’t until June 4 that a slight net inflow of about $30k was recorded, briefly ending this record-breaking outflow; by June 18, overall still mainly net outflow, with a total outflow of about $167 million/week, for three consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling about $421 million over three weeks. This large-scale redemption isn’t just a reaction to falling prices but an active reduction of holdings by institutions before a big drop. Historical data shows that when ETF outflows peak, it often signals that the market bottom is near—similar phenomena occurred at the bottoms of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Looking back at last month, Bitcoin’s price above 60,000 attracted a lot of institutional bottom-fishing capital, leading to a “institutional bull” wave, with Bitcoin soaring to $82,000. Now, a month later, after large capital outflows, institutions have more “ammunition” again. Will they buy the dip again at 60,000? Worth watching. Also, don’t forget that millions of Bitcoin holders are “diving” and waiting, with unrealized losses acting like a spring—when rebound happens, they will push the market higher.

2. Major Holders’ Cost: The Ballast of the Market

After reviewing capital flows, let’s look at the cost basis of major holders, especially Strategy (MicroStrategy), which is the largest corporate BTC holder globally. Its holdings are fully transparent and serve as a benchmark for institutional cost analysis.

Total holdings: about 818,334 BTC (as of April 27, 2026)

Total cost: about $30k

Average cost per BTC: about $75,700

Recent purchase price ranges:

April 27: bought 3,273 BTC, spent $255M, average about $78,000

April 13: bought 13,927 BTC, spent $1B, average about $71,900

January 20: bought 22,305 BTC, spent $2.125B, average about $95,500 (high-cost buy)

January 12: bought 13,627 BTC, spent $1.247B, average about $91,700

Strategy’s average cost of $75,700 is clearly higher than the on-chain market average of $53,447 and above the current spot price of about $65,700, meaning Strategy is currently at roughly -10% unrealized loss overall. Saylor sold part of his holdings in late May, then resumed small-scale buying in early June, signaling complex signals.

Looking at the overall market’s average cost, we focus on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, which is the most authoritative on-chain indicator representing the weighted average price of all BTC at the last on-chain movement. According to Glassnode’s latest data, as of June 17, 2026:

Market Realized Price: about $53,447 (Glassnode)

Current spot price: about $65,700, which is roughly +22% above the realized price.

This indicates that the weighted average buy-in cost of all BTC holders is around $53,000–$54,000. Notably, this indicator has fallen from its high of about $62,120 in 2025, suggesting that recent large numbers of low-cost holders re-entered the market, and high-cost holders’ sell-offs (realized losses) have pulled the average down.

A further on-chain report by VanEck in mid-June confirms: 54% of BTC supply is in profit, far below the four-year average of 81%, placing it in the 9th–12th percentile historically; the proportion of supply in loss is near the four-year high (95th percentile), indicating that many recent institutional holdings are in unrealized loss.

Next, regarding ETF costs: since the US spot BTC ETF launched in January 2024, it has experienced a net inflow of about $6.18B (Farside data). But the average purchase cost of the ETF isn’t simply total inflows divided by current holdings because of large inflows and outflows during volatile price swings.

We can estimate the ETF’s weighted average cost from these dimensions:

ETF holdings change: VanEck reports that ETF AUM fell from a peak of $10.9 billion on May 5 to $7.88 billion on June 11—a decline of about 27%, due to both redemptions and price drops.

Timing of capital inflows: major inflows occurred in Q1 2024 (BTC between $40,000–$70,000), late 2024 to early 2025 (BTC between $90,000–$100,000+), and during April–May 2025. Considering early low-cost buys and later high-price additions, the estimated weighted average cost of the ETF is around $65,000–$72,000.

Finally, let’s look at miners’ costs. Different sources estimate the cost to mine one BTC with significant variation. JPMorgan’s full-cost estimate (electricity + operations + depreciation + management) is about $78,000 per BTC. No need to say more—right now, miners are losing about $10,000 per BTC, and the price has long hit their shutdown point. Besides transitioning to AI services, remaining miners find mining less profitable than buying on the market, and this buying power also acts as a solid support for Bitcoin’s price.

3. Market Leverage: Violent Liquidation of Leverage Bubble

Based on multiple data sources (mainly CoinGlass), the average daily liquidation amount in June was about $185 million–$200 million. According to CoinGlass’s BTC liquidation page, on June 22, 24-hour liquidations reached about $66.16 million; over the 7 days, about $40.46 million. With the ongoing downtrend since June, most liquidations are likely long positions. Behind these high liquidation figures, trading volume and turnover rate have also increased significantly. The forced liquidation wave accelerates market cleansing. When liquidation amounts surge, it means weak hands are eliminated, leaving more stable positions. Historically, peaks in liquidation (like during the 2022 FTX crisis) often occur near market bottoms, followed by rebounds. Current data also shows a recent surge in short positions; once the price reverses, short covering will amplify the upward momentum, providing extra support for bottom-fishing.

4. Technical Analysis: Focus on Two Indicators

Finally, on the technical side, many short-term indicators are widely analyzed. Let’s focus on two important weekly indicators. The first is the five-wave downtrend structure on the weekly chart that Xiao Caishen mentioned before. It’s now in the final wave, meaning the market could bottom at any time. The recent three weekly candles have formed a “Dawning Star” pattern. Next, watch whether the resistance around 66,300 can be broken. If it is, it likely indicates the five-wave downtrend is complete, and the “bear” phase is over.

The second key indicator is the 200-week moving average (around $62,000), which has historically provided strong support, with rebounds each time it was touched. Sentiment-wise, the Fear & Greed Index is in “Extreme Fear,” but extreme pessimism is often a buying signal.

5. How to Bottom Fish Around 60,000?

1. Spot traders: I think you can go all-in without overthinking, with about 60% of your capital, and keep 40% in reserve to add if the market drops further. Besides the traditional Bitcoin and Ethereum, if you want higher returns, consider allocating some high-value altcoins with real projects and teams actively working, especially in AI and RWA sectors, avoiding meme coin hype.

2. Contract traders: If you’re not satisfied with the low yield of spot trading, leverage is necessary for bottom fishing. But keep leverage low. You can start with a small position above 60,000, and if the price successfully breaks and stabilizes above 66,500, add more. Always set stop-losses—around 59,000—and if the price falls below, step back and avoid over-leveraging again, preventing repeated bottom-fishing and stop-loss cycles.

Bottom-fishing isn’t a skill contest of who’s more precise; it’s a game of mindset, strategy, and big-picture thinking. Don’t obsess over whether you bought at the absolute bottom, but whether you’re ultimately making money. And also consider whether you can hold your positions through the next bull run. Anyway, I wish everyone prosperity every day!