TrendForce says the DRAM shortage is expanding into older DDR2

DDR2 contract prices are expected to rise 55% to 60% in Q2 2026, followed by another 35% to 40% in Q3 2026
The three major DRAM makers are shifting capacity toward HBM and server DRAM because AI infrastructure demand is stronger and more profitable. That reduces supply for older, mature-node DRAM products.
As DDR4 supply tightens and prices rise, some brands and ODMs are lowering specs to control costs, moving from DDR4 to DDR3 or even from DDR3 to DDR2
That is pushing shortage pressure into older memory generations
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Main beneficiaries
Winbond (2344)
Winbond is gradually exiting DDR2 and reallocating capacity toward DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, where margins are better
→ This reduces DDR2 supply even further
→ But improves Winbond’s product mix and profitability
Etron Technology (3006)
Etron is doing the opposite. It is increasing DDR2 wafer starts through PSMC (6770) to capture the shortage and maximize profits while Winbond exits the market
Nanya Tech and Winbond also gain stronger pricing power in consumer DRAM, because demand is now exceeding what Taiwanese suppliers can ship