Many people originally thought that after both parties signed the memorandum, the subsequent negotiations would gradually progress, but unexpectedly new variables have emerged. The Strait of Hormuz issue has escalated again, with both sides showing a clear shift towards a stronger stance. The market is worried about whether the situation will further deteriorate, so risk aversion has suddenly increased again.

From the current situation, although the US and Iran have not completely broken down negotiations, there is still a long way to go before reaching a comprehensive consensus. Especially regarding core issues such as regional conflicts and asset unfreezing, it is not realistic to resolve everything in a short period.

For the market, the most important thing now is not who said what, but whether there is substantial progress afterward. As long as the situation does not clearly ease, funds are likely to remain cautious.

Recently, ETF funds have not shown obvious inflows, and institutions overall remain cautious, so it’s not easy for the market to sustain a continuous upward trend in the short term.

Therefore, there’s no need to overcomplicate things this week; just keep an eye on two directions:
One is whether there are any new developments in the US-Iran situation; the other is whether institutional funds are flowing back into the market.

Until there are clear changes in these two factors, I personally maintain my previous view that the market is more like a consolidation with fluctuations rather than a direct trend change.

From the weekly chart, it is still in a range of 60,000-67,000, and no real trend reversal signals have appeared yet.

Trading-wise, stick to the old approach, focusing on short-term and swing trades, patiently waiting for the market to give a clear direction.

BTC target range: 64,000-66,000;
ETH target range: 1,700-1,770;
SOL target range: 72-76.