Has the Strait of Hormuz truly "reopened"? The demining cycle, capacity recovery, and the delayed logic of oil price normalization

In June 2026, after more than three months of substantial blockade, the Strait of Hormuz finally entered a reopening window. On June 15, the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding, and President Trump announced during the G7 summit that the strait would be "fully open" by June 19. Following the announcement, international oil prices retreated—Brent crude dropped sharply from its wartime peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30, and further fell below $78 on June 18.

However, between "announcing reopening" and "normal operation," there are four major hurdles: demining, capacity recovery, freight resumption, and market confidence rebuilding. This article will analyze the true roadmap for the Strait of Hormuz reopening from three dimensions: mine clearance timeline, supply-side repair pace, and oil price return path.

Demining Operations: The "Safety First" Barrier of 40 to 50 Days

The primary obstacle to normal commercial navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is the numerous sea mines laid during the conflict.

According to assessments cited by Reuters from Western maritime security sources, clearing the mines to ensure safe navigation may take 40 to 50 days. Jakob Larsen, Safety Director at BIMCO, also confirmed that the entire demining process would require 40 to 50 days, and called for the early establishment of "mine-free routes." An earlier classified Pentagon briefing estimated that fully removing the mines laid by Iran could take up to six months—though a Pentagon spokesperson later denied the feasibility of this estimate.

The number and distribution of mines are the biggest unknowns. Phil Belcher, Maritime Director of the independent oil tanker association Intertanko, cited recent data indicating at least 80 mines near the main shipping lanes of the Strait. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard previously warned of a "danger zone" covering 1,400 square kilometers—equivalent to 14 times the area of Paris. While the memorandum explicitly states that "Iran will carry out mine clearance within 30 days," maritime experts note that even with rapid detection using minesweepers and underwater sonar, some mines may have shifted or remain hidden, and full clearance will require comprehensive verification of the navigational safety.

In other words, mine clearance is not a process that can be "completed instantly." A 40 to 50-day demining period implies that, before late July to early August, the strait cannot be considered a commercially "safe passage."

Navigation Resumption: From "Ship Passage" to "Supply Chain Normalization" in Three Phases

Even after the channel is cleared of mines, restoring normal shipping operations will still be a phased process.

According to shipping analysis firm Xeneta, full recovery of container shipping may not occur until mid-September 2026. Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand pointed out that before the conflict, 99 container routes operating in or transiting the Arabian Gulf deployed a total capacity of 3.2 million TEU, accounting for about 10% of the global container fleet, but now only 11 routes remain active. Hundreds of ships have been forced to reroute or shift to other global trade lanes.

Xeneta predicts the recovery will proceed in three stages: first, releasing the backlog of ships stranded in the Arabian Gulf; second, the return of regional feeder services; and third, the gradual restoration of main routes such as Asia-Europe and Asia-North America. Even in the most optimistic scenario, shipping analysts believe that a full repair of the maritime supply chain network will take at least three months.

Data on shipping activity confirms the slow pace of recovery. Industry data cited by The New York Times shows that currently, about 25 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily—higher than wartime lows but still far below the normal level of 125 to 140 ships per day before the crisis. About 600 ships remain anchored in the Persian Gulf. Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief of Lloyd’s List, a global shipping data provider, stated: "We are in uncharted territory. I don’t think shipping through the strait will return to normal this year."

Capacity Bottleneck: The Gap of 14.4 Million Barrels per Day Cannot Be Refilled Instantly

There is a huge gap between "allowing exports" and "restoring production." An IEA report shows that, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf countries' oil production is 14.4 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. Middle Eastern oil producers have already cut over 11 million barrels per day in output.

Capacity recovery faces three constraints. First, some oil wells were forced to shut temporarily during months of suspension, with some facilities damaged. The Iranian Oil and Gas Exporters Association states that Iran’s natural gas production has decreased by about 10%, and fully repairing damaged facilities will take two years. Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that rebuilding the region’s oil and gas infrastructure will cost approximately $42 billion. Second, there is a shortfall in tanker capacity and manpower—many oil tankers rerouted or halted during the conflict, and crew members are reluctant to return to the Gulf due to safety concerns. Third, even if wells restart, empty tankers must first enter the strait to load existing inventories before making room for subsequent production, a process that itself takes several weeks.

ICICI Bank Research estimates that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will only restore production to 82% of pre-war capacity by September 2026, reaching 90% by December. In other words, before the end of Q3, supply-side will still be in a "tight balance" state.

The Unique Dilemma in the LNG Market: 20% of Global Supply Frozen and Long-term Capacity Damage

The recovery path for the natural gas market is more complex than for oil. The IEA explicitly states that nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply has disappeared from the market due to the substantial closure of the strait. Wood Mackenzie’s analysis further indicates that, under a "summer reconciliation" scenario, LNG restart will be delayed until September 2026, with full capacity recovery not until 2028.

More severely, attacks on Middle Eastern LNG liquefaction facilities during the conflict have caused long-term capacity damage. The IEA warns that these damages are altering the medium-term supply-demand landscape. Qatar’s approximately 12.8 million tons/year of damaged capacity will take 3 to 5 years to repair. Even if navigation through the strait resumes, LNG supply recovery will lag significantly behind that of oil.

Oil Price Return Path: Divergences and Consensus in Institutional Forecasts

Major institutions have significantly different but logically consistent forecasts for Brent crude oil’s future trajectory.

Citibank sharply downgraded its oil price forecast on June 16, lowering its Q3 2026 Brent forecast from $95 to $75 per barrel, Q4 from $80 to $70, and further down to $65 for 2027. Its core logic is: if the US-Iran agreement can restore strait trade flows by mid to late July, oil prices will shift from "geopolitical risk premium pricing" back to "fundamentals-based pricing."

Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 2026 Brent forecast from $90 to $80, and its 2027 average from $80 to $75. However, Goldman also notes that risks are skewed upward—if the strait remains disrupted into 2027, Brent could surge past $130 per barrel by the end of 2026.

ICICI Bank Research expects Brent to stay in the $75–$85 range in the second half of 2026, driven by tight physical markets and inventory replenishment needs. In 2027, as supply increases significantly, the outlook turns bearish, with forecasts of $65–$75.

Barclays maintains its forecast of an average of $100 per barrel for Brent in 2026, believing that the pace of supply recovery will be slower than current market expectations.

Overall, the main divergence among forecasts lies in the "speed of recovery," but there is a basic consensus: in the second half of 2026, Brent crude is likely to trade within $75–$85, and as supply gradually returns in 2027, the price center will shift downward toward $65–$75.

Risk Variables: Implementation of Agreements and Inventory Critical Points

All these forecasts rely on a key premise—the ceasefire agreement can be sustained. However, the memorandum of understanding is only a 60-day temporary framework, with core issues like Iran’s nuclear negotiations postponed to later talks. President Trump has also stated that if the US believes Iran is not complying, it will strike Iran again. Additionally, the issue of passage fees through the strait has become a major US-Iran dispute—the memorandum only guarantees free passage for 60 days. Any breakdown of the agreement or escalation of tensions could push oil prices back to $90 or higher per barrel.

Another underestimated risk is that global oil inventories have already fallen to critical lows. US crude inventories have declined for nine consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of 52 million barrels. The Cushing storage hub’s inventory is about 21 million barrels; falling below 20 million could trigger operational disruptions in storage and transportation infrastructure. ExxonMobil senior vice president Neil Chapman notes that current crude inventories are at historically rare lows, and once critical thresholds are reached, prices could spike rapidly. Low inventories mean the market’s buffer against supply disruptions is extremely limited— even a brief friction could trigger sharp price reactions.

Conclusion

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz should not be simply seen as a signal that the "energy crisis is over." From 40 to 50 days of demining work, to at least three months of shipping network repair, and finally to reaching 90% capacity by the end of 2026, this recovery path is measured in "months," not "days." For traders, the core market issue is not a binary "strait open or closed," but rather the "speed of recovery" and whether the agreement can be sustained—an ongoing game of risk. With inventories at historic lows, any supply-side disturbance could be significantly amplified. Over the coming months, oil prices are likely to fluctuate widely within the $75–$85 range, and true "normalization"—returning to pre-conflict levels below $70 per barrel—may only occur after full supply release in 2027.