$ETH Someone asked me how I’ve been viewing ETH recently. I said don’t rush to look at it; just stand on the candlestick chart, and stay within the 1700 to 1760 dollar range.

First, let’s state the conclusion: now is not the time to take a position; it’s the time to wait for a direction.
What happened last week?
On Monday, a big bullish candle pushed it up to 1849, and those long thought it was going to break 2000. But on Tuesday, Japan raised interest rates, and on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve turned hawkish, causing a continuous drop to 1670. Shorts thought it was going to crash, but it stubbornly stayed above 1700 and couldn’t go lower.
Two groups of people exchanged blows for a week, and neither convinced the other.
1849 is a double top, both attempts failed to break through. 1700 is a solid bottom, three attempts to break below it failed. Bulls and bears are testing each other in this middle zone, neither willing to reveal their hand first.
What is the current market characteristic? Low volume.
The daily trading volume is only half of the average volume. This indicates two things:
1. Those who needed to sell have already sold
2. Those who want to buy are waiting
No new funds are entering the market; it’s all internal players betting against each other. That’s why we see daily fluctuations of small rises and falls, unable to form a trend.
From a technical perspective, the only noteworthy indicator is the MACD daily divergence.
During the decline from 1849 to 1670, the MACD histogram kept shrinking, and a golden cross has now formed. This signals a weakening of bearish momentum. But this isn’t a signal to chase longs; it’s to confirm that “if it drops to a certain level, it can be bought.”
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are already squeezed to the extreme, with a bandwidth of only 3.6%. In technical analysis, after Bollinger Bands contract, they must expand—either upward or downward, they won’t stay tight forever.
So the key question now is: when will the direction emerge?
It depends on two variables:
1. Can 1700 hold—this level has been tested three times already. If it breaks down with increased volume on the fourth attempt, the next support is at 1650-1620, and the consolidation range will shift downward by 300 points.
2. Can it rise above 1760—last week’s rebounds stopped here twice. If it can break above with volume, the technical setup shifts to a bullish pattern, targeting 1795-1849.
Breakouts of these two levels require volume. A breakout without volume is fake—either it gets pulled back or it’s a trap for both longs and shorts.