#美伊谈判第一轮结束 The US-Iran negotiations suddenly collapse! Bitcoin drops below 63k, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance looms large, multiple negative factors bombard the market—bottom fishing or wait-and-see?

#美伊谈判第一轮结束 The US-Iran negotiations suddenly collapse! Bitcoin drops below 63k, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance looms large, multiple negative factors bombard the market—are we bottoming out or waiting on the sidelines?

1. Market Overview: Geopolitical shocks hit suddenly, dual currencies under pressure to decline
On June 22, the cryptocurrency market oscillated lower under dual pressures from geopolitics and macro factors. Bitcoin remained under pressure during Asian trading hours, briefly breaking below the 64,000 USD mark, with a low of 63,312 USD. As of the time of writing, BTC is fluctuating between 63,600-64,100 USD, with a 24-hour decline of about 0.8%-1%. BTC has been range-bound between 63,000-65,000 USD for several days, unable to break through resistance effectively.
Ethereum's trend is even more fragile, having fallen to the cliff near 1,700 USD. ETH's lowest touched the 1,700 USD mark; as of the report, it is quoted at 1,710-1,733 USD, with a 24-hour drop of about 1.7%. Active addresses on the Ethereum network have decreased by about 50% since February 2026, reflecting a significant contraction in actual usage demand. The total crypto market cap is around 2.2 trillion USD, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to the 21-15 range, still deep in "Fear" or even "Extreme Fear" territory. CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index recorded 21, in the "Fear" zone.

2. Geopolitical Storm: US-Iran talks collapse after 80 minutes, oil surges, crypto plunges
Just after signing a peace agreement, the first round of negotiations collapsed. On June 21, local time, the US and Iran held their first talks in Bürgen, Switzerland, after signing a memorandum of understanding. However, the negotiations lasted only about 80 minutes before the Iranian delegation announced a pause and left the table. The trigger was a social media post by Trump. Trump warned on Truth Social that Iran must immediately cease its "proxy" actions in Lebanon, or the US would strike Iran again—"and it will be more forceful." Iran's response was extremely tough. Iran's Parliament Speaker, Kalibaf, responded on social media: "They better watch their words; our armed forces are ready to respond in different ways." The Iranian delegation demanded an apology from Trump and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, or they would not return to the negotiation table. Iran also explicitly stated that if the US fails to fulfill its promises, the entire memorandum faces the risk of collapse.
International oil prices surged—WTI crude oil rose by 2.7% to $77.875 per barrel at one point, Brent crude opened up 2.2%. US stock futures declined collectively, with Dow futures down 0.46%, Nasdaq futures down 0.71%. The crypto market plunged across the board. Bitcoin broke below 64,000 USD, touching a low of 63,312 USD; Ethereum fell near 1,700 USD.
This is the third "wolf coming" scenario for the US-Iran deal—previous ceasefire news in April and early June briefly boosted Bitcoin, but all gains were later given back. The market is voting with its feet: geopolitical optimism is diminishing at the margin.

3. Macro headwinds: Wosh's "Hawk Claw" looms large, 9 officials support rate hikes
Beyond geopolitics, macro pressures are more fundamental. On June 17, Kevin Wosh presided over the FOMC meeting for the first time as Fed Chair. While interest rates remained at 3.50%-3.75%, the dramatic shift in the dot plot was the real bombshell—9 officials expect at least one rate hike this year, up from zero in March. The number of officials supporting rate cuts dropped from 12 to 1. CME FedWatch shows the December rate hike probability has risen to 78%. The shift from "rate cut" to "rate hike" narrative exerts the most direct valuation pressure on liquidity-dependent crypto assets. JPMorgan also revealed another potential risk: current Bitcoin mining costs are about $78,000, while the price is only around $64,200, meaning about 20% of miners are unprofitable. Q1 listed miners sold over 32,000 BTC, exceeding the total for 2025. If prices fall further, it could trigger a wave of mining shutdowns, leading to renewed selling pressure.

4. Liquidation data: Shorts are the main victims, 54k traders liquidated
In the past 24 hours of decline, shorts have been the main victims. According to Coinglass, total liquidations in the past 24 hours amounted to approximately $903M-$82.69M. Among them, short liquidations were about $44.75M-$44.96M, long liquidations about $33.18M-$37.72M. Globally, about 54,048 traders were liquidated, with Bitcoin short liquidations around $12.16M-$12.65M, long liquidations about $63k-$4.01M; Ethereum short liquidations around $54k-$6.65M, long liquidations about $22k-$6.79M. The scale of short liquidations far exceeds longs, indicating that leveraged funds betting on further declines were forced to exit during the slight rebound. But near the 63,000 USD level, bulls and bears are still engaged in fierce battle, and the direction remains uncertain.

5. Technical analysis: 63,000 USD becomes a dividing line
Bitcoin: The 63,000 USD level is a critical threshold. The daily chart shows a complete bearish arrangement, with price below all major moving averages. The rebound since the low of 63,077 USD on June 18 is a technical correction within a downtrend, not a trend reversal. Before breaking above 64,700 USD with volume, all rebounds are treated as false signals.
Key supports: $63,000 (psychological level; a break below tests $62,000); $61,184 (if broken, liquidation of large CEX long positions could reach $903 million); $60,000 (mid-term bull-bear dividing line).
Key resistances: $64,000-$64,700 (short-term moving averages and congestion zones); $67,124 (a break above would significantly increase liquidation of large CEX short positions). The 1-hour bullish trend structure has broken; after reaching a high of 64,565, the price closed below the Bollinger middle band at 64,091, turning previous support into strong resistance. The current price is close to the lower band at 63,734, a weak support; a decisive break below could open further downside space.
Ethereum: Near the cliff at 1,700 USD
ETH is weakly oscillating around 1,700 USD, with a prevailing bearish trend. Due to low weekend liquidity, price movements are easily amplified.
Key supports: $1,700 (psychological level; a break below tests $1,680); $1,620-$1,650 (strong support zone).
Key resistances: $1,760-$1,790 (short-term resistance zone); $1,800 (must recover this level to re-establish bullish structure). ETH's RSI6 is only 25.49, indicating obvious short-term oversold conditions, but no major positive catalysts for reversal within the day. Overall, the trend remains downward.

6. Market outlook: Three variables determine the direction
Entering this week, three core variables will decide the market’s phase direction:
Variable 1: Will US-Iran negotiations restart? Iran demands an apology from Trump and Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon before returning to talks. If negotiations resume, geopolitical risk premiums will ease; if talks completely break down or escalate into military conflict, oil prices could surge further, putting more pressure on crypto markets.
Variable 2: Evolution of Fed rate hike expectations. The impact of the 9 officials supporting hikes is still being digested. If upcoming economic data reinforce rate hike expectations, crypto markets could face another round of valuation adjustments. Conversely, if data weaken expectations, markets may get a brief respite.
Variable 3: ETF capital flows. Bitcoin ETF has experienced continuous outflows for several weeks, with institutional funds still retreating. If ETF outflows slow or turn into inflows this week, it will provide important sentiment support.

7. Trading advice: High uncertainty, watch more, act less
With geopolitical and macro uncertainties stacking, short-term traders should remain extremely cautious.
BTC strategy: The 63,000 USD level is a key support in the short term. A volume breakdown below this level warrants caution for accelerated decline toward 61,184 USD or even 60,000 USD; if a rebound to 64,000-64,700 USD faces resistance, consider small short positions with strict stop-loss. Before volume breaks above 64,700 USD, all rebounds are treated as false signals.
ETH strategy: Watch the 1,700 USD support. A confirmed break below risks further decline to 1,620-1,650 USD; resistance at 1,760-1,790 USD is a good short entry zone. ETH's RSI6 is only 25.49, indicating short-term oversold conditions, but the overall trend remains bearish. For long-term investors, macro headwinds—Fed rate hike expectations, ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainties—persist, making short-term relief unlikely. However, for those optimistic about the long-term prospects of digital assets, the region below 60,000 USD offers value for phased accumulation.

Key risk warnings:
Geopolitical volatility: US-Iran negotiations could break or restart at any time, with high uncertainty.
Fed rate hike expectations: The 78% probability of a December hike could intensify if economic data support it, adding pressure on crypto markets.
Miner selling pressure risk: 20% of miners are unprofitable; further price declines could trigger a wave of shutdowns.
Technical outlook: Daily bearish arrangement is complete; before volume breaks above 64,700 USD, the trend remains difficult to reverse.