Iran signed after 18 hours of extreme tug-of-war, but BTC's trouble is just beginning.

In the past 48 hours, the whole world has been played by Iran.

On June 20th, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged, and BTC dropped below $64,000.

Then the US said: No closure, 55 ships passing normally.

Both sides sat down to talk in Switzerland. Halfway through, the Iranian delegation directly refused to continue—oil prices jumped another 2%, and the market once thought it was about to collapse.

After 18 hours, the agreement was signed.

In the early morning of June 22nd, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: Both parties reached an agreement on a safe passage mechanism for ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar and Pakistan acted as intermediaries, and a 60-day roadmap was finalized.

Once the news came out, the Nikkei 225 directly broke through 72,000 points, hitting a new all-time high.

Silver broke through $66 per ounce. Oil prices fell to a three-month low.

Geopolitical premium, wiped out overnight.

Okay, here’s the question: Will the money flowing out of safe-haven assets go into BTC?

📌 First look at the data, don’t rush to call a bull.

After the agreement news, BTC soared from $59,000 to $66,000, nearly a 12% increase. When negotiations hit a snag, it fell back to $63,000. Currently stable around $64,500.

Have you noticed?

BTC’s gains are already digesting this positive news.

The moment the agreement was reached is not a buy signal—it’s a sign that the good news has been fully priced in.

⚠️ The real suppressor of BTC has never been Hormuz.

It’s the Federal Reserve.

Latest data on June 22nd: The probability of a rate hike in September is 76%. The probability of holding rates steady in July is only 61.5%.

Deutsche Bank even predicts: a rate hike in September and December, totaling 50 basis points, pushing rates to 4.1%.

Think about it: oil prices fell, inflation pressures eased—but the Fed is actually more confident to raise rates.

“Funds released by geopolitical easing are likely to be swallowed up by monetary tightening.”

🎯 So where will this money go?

The Nikkei has already told you the answer—it’s going into real risk assets, not “digital gold.”

Japanese stocks, AI, and semiconductor sectors lead the rally. Funds are chasing assets with performance, narratives, and institutional backing.

BTC’s positioning at this stage is very awkward:

Calling it a safe-haven asset? Gold is still hovering around $4,200, and BTC’s decoupling from gold is becoming more obvious.

Calling it a risk asset? The Fed raises rates, and BTC is the first to get hit.

Neither side is reliable.

“The Hormuz opening took away the oil price top, but the top for BTC—lies in the Fed’s voting machine.”

Geopolitics paints you a pie, but monetary policy can take it all back in a minute. #我的Gate交易时刻 #美伊谈判第一轮结束 #预测世界杯法国VS伊拉克 $BTC $ETH $SOL