6.22 Monday Midday Market Analysis

The first round of formal negotiations between the US and Iran has concluded. Both sides have set a plan to reach a final agreement within 60 days and have established a supervisory committee. Next, the technical teams will continue to drill down into the details, with a Lebanon ceasefire as the top priority.
Driven by the news, Bitcoin still saw a symbolic rebound, but the strength was not great. Yesterday’s article reminded that you could consider going short above 64,000. It originally kept sliding smoothly down to around 63,000, but this morning it was pulled back to the cost-basis zone due to the impact of the news.
At present, Bitcoin’s structure still remains bearish.
From the beginning of last week, when the US and Iran announced they had reached an agreement, to the signing of the memorandum of understanding that ultimately set the deal to be reached within 60 days—overall, the impact has been limited. In this round of market action, there has not been any clear inflow of funds.
On the macro level, last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision dot plot released a strong hawkish signal, and the probability of rate hikes within the year is getting higher.
This is essentially already obvious. Since the beginning of the month, I’ve been emphasizing that inflation and the rate decision would bring negative effects to the market.
The rebound after probing down to 60,000 this month was also within expectations, but the rebound has no fresh catalyst to support it. It’s purely because the price is low enough, with trash-news themes like US and Iran keeping it propped up. The bearish structure has not changed at all.
BTC trading suggestion: short around 64,500; take profit 63,800-62,800; stop loss 65,500. If you have profit, you can close at any time—no need to hold for a bigger move.
ETH trading suggestion: short 1,740-1,770; take profit 1,720-1,680; stop loss 1,800.