Yang Guang bit | June 22 $ETH Precise Strategy Full Trend Control

Today's Outlook
Entry Point: Price rebounds to the 1750-1760 range
Adding to Short Positions: Rises to the 1775-1785 range
Stop Loss: Above 1805
Tiered Take Profit
First Target: 1720-1730
Second Target: 1700-1705
Breakout Add Positions: Below 1680
Core Conclusion
ETH started a oversold rebound from the low of 1700.37, rising intraday to around 1759.35. The short-term correction driven by short covering has largely played out. The area above 1760-1780 is a historically dense resistance zone. Coupled with continuous net outflows from ETH spot ETFs and no new institutional inflows, this rebound is mainly emotional repair, and the major downtrend has not reversed. After the spike, selling pressure will gradually re-emerge. The strategy is to firmly short at the rebound highs, avoid chasing longs, and play the certainty of a pullback market.
Market Logic Breakdown
1. News Factors: Macro suppression persists, no new positive catalysts
The market has fully priced in the geopolitical easing expectations between the US and Iran. The rebound driven by sentiment is nearing its end, with no new large-scale positive support to sustain the rally.
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues, with rate cut expectations delayed for the year. The US dollar index remains high, putting pressure on risk asset valuations. As a high-volatility asset, ETH cannot rise independently.
2. On-Chain & Capital Aspects: Lack of incremental funds, selling pressure gradually appears
ETH spot ETF continues to see net outflows. Institutions have not entered the market on the rebound. The recent rise is driven entirely by retail bottom-fishing and passive short covering, indicating weak foundation and questionable sustainability.
Above 1760, there is a concentration of trapped positions from earlier, and after rebounding into this zone, selling pressure is released. Large transfers on-chain increase, with major holders gradually cashing out during the rebound.
Derivatives market funding rates have slightly turned positive but with limited magnitude. Traders are reluctant to chase high, and there is no sign of a short squeeze. After the rebound momentum diminishes, the market will return to a downward trend.