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Hayes’s liquidation this round was very decisive: three major AI-related negative narratives weighed down the market, and under the liquidity-siphon effect even Bitcoin couldn’t escape the fate of being thrown out with the bathwater. In short, the macro outlook really does need to be recalibrated.
He reflected on his previous macro forecasts, believing that the current market's fiat liquidity has not flowed into Bitcoin, but has all gone into the AI sector.
He pointed out that the current AI narrative faces three issues: the most challenging energy prices, the potential reversal risk of U.S. policies, and the draining of massive IPOs by giants like Anthropic and OpenAI.
He stated that it's not that AI has plummeted 50%, and people then have funds to buy Bitcoin; at that point, Bitcoin would be "indiscriminately dumped like bathwater."
Given these risks, he decided to exit the market.