June 22 BTC/ETH Market Morning Report -- Upward Momentum Fades, Major Short Sellers Ready to Strike

Weekend market movements were relatively mild, fluctuating within the range of 63,000 to 64,500, with weekend articles suggesting short positions near Bitcoin 64,800–65,500 and 1,760–1,780. No entry opportunities were provided. The short positions around 63,900–64,500 and 1,738–1,755 from last Friday are currently showing small profits. So, let's be patient and hold. The weekly strategy remains unchanged: high-level shorting. Details are as follows:

Fundamentals:

Currently, US-Iran relations have shifted from a “ceasefire positive” to a “high-risk negotiation” mode. Any signs of negotiation breakdown could trigger a new round of panic. US-Iran talks have been tossed back and forth multiple times. Hopefully, peace will be restored soon!

The latest Fed SEP dot plot shows that out of 19 policymakers, 9 expect at least a 25 basis point rate hike before the end of 2026, with 6 expecting two hikes. This is a 180-degree reversal from the March dot plot, which indicated “one rate cut within the year.” Market bets on a July rate hike have surged again to 41.7% (see the chart below).

This will suppress price rally momentum, and the market may experience panic selling afterward. Everyone, whether long or short, should participate with light positions during this period!

Technical Analysis:

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is 0.36, still above the severely undervalued threshold (<0), indicating the market has not reached an extremely pessimistic state. Historical data shows that each cycle’s bottom MVRV value ranges from -0.3 to -0.6, which is the best time to bottom fish. Patience is still needed.

Bitcoin’s chart shows a bear flag pattern, which has already broken below the flag’s bottom. The weekend rebound touched the resistance along the bear flag’s lower edge. This is one of the reasons I believe the recent upward movement is difficult to break through (see the chart below).

On the daily chart, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with insufficient upward momentum. The 21-day moving average has not been touched recently. The MACD histogram shows waning momentum, and yesterday’s price closed below the middle Bollinger Band. Resistance levels are heavy, so a cautious approach of shorting on dips is more prudent. Refer to the support/resistance levels below for phased short entries.

Bitcoin:

Watch the resistance around 64,400–64,900–65,500. Target levels below are: 63,200–62,200–59,800–58,000–54,000.

Ethereum:

Watch the resistance around 1,740–1,760–1,780–1,820. Target levels below are: 1,680–1,640–1,580–1,510–1,444.

Note: Be cautious with entry and exit points, keep positions light. Spread (spread difference): Bitcoin ±100 points, Ethereum ±5 points. The above is solely my personal opinion. Please trade cautiously, profits and losses are your own responsibility! #我的Gate交易时刻 #美伊谈判推迟 #预测世界杯西班牙VS沙特