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Analysis: SpaceX and Cursor’s 60 billion options are essentially a high-stakes wager on coded data
According to his analysis, xAI’s Grok has consistently lagged behind Claude Code and Codex in coding ability, while Cursor holds the world’s largest developer operation trajectory.
The deal allows Cursor to train its Composer model on SpaceX’s Colossus supercomputer, and xAI simultaneously trains Grok with the same data, both sides testing whether Cursor’s data can create a gap.
He believes that the option structure is precisely for pricing such uncertainties: if the data is useful, SpaceX buys Cursor and the entire pipeline for $60 billion; if not, they pay $10 billion as experimental costs.
He summarized that a pre-IPO company just priced “whether developer trajectories are a scarce resource for coding agents,” with $10 billion as the cost of the experiment and $60 billion as the valuation if the answer is “yes.”
(Source: BlockBeats)