$40 billion in military spending + oil prices break above $4 + families fork out an extra $253—no matter how you calculate it, it always comes back to ordinary people footing the bill.

CSIS’ preliminary analysis says the Iran war has increased U.S. Department of Defense spending by about $40 billion, not including routine operational spending for the 2026 fiscal year; the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Veterans Affairs added another about $100 million in costs. Oil prices have risen from under $3 per gallon to more than $4 for most of the time. Brown University’s energy cost tracking shows that, absent the war, typical households would spend about $253 less per year. Inflation in April and May has eroded pay raises, with wage growth lagging behind price increases.