Next week's long-term outlook

Review of this round of the decline through the 60,000 level: As early as at the beginning of last month, when the market surged to a high of 82,800, I identified this as the top of this cycle. I proactively positioned long-term contracts at 82,200 points. After the market broke below the 80,000 level, the downward wave target of 65,000 was reaffirmed. During the subsequent pullback, I consistently avoided the obsession with short-term trades and maintained the main long-term strategy without wavering.

Earlier, I set the short-term rebound upper limit range at 65,500-67,000, and pointed out that the Federal Reserve decision on June 18 would be the key turning point for the market. After the market surged to an anticipated high of 67,200 and then turned down as expected, the decline officially began on the 18th, with sideways consolidation on the 19th. This current rebound is only a brief correction after the decline.

The long-term main direction remains firmly bearish. Key points summary:
1. All current rebounds are part of a trend-aligned window for short-term long positions; the main bearish trend has not reversed.
2. Focus on two critical levels: the upper resistance at 66,300, which is the core pressure point. Even if there is a slight short-term breakout, the probability of reaching 70,000 is very low, and the upward space for short-term rebounds continues to narrow; the lower support at 60,000 is the baseline. If it is effectively broken, the first target for this wave is 55,000, with a secondary extension toward 53,000. A breakdown would lead to further declines toward the 50,000 level.
3. Ethereum (ETH) is moving in sync with Bitcoin (BTC) in a bearish trend; previously, long positions were safely secured in the 510-point range.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish tightening continues to suppress the market. In the long term, avoid blindly bottom-fishing or going long. Instead, rely on rebounds to gradually build short positions, strictly control position sizes, and adhere to risk management principles. $BTC $ETH #预测世界杯西班牙VS沙特