🔥 US-Iran negotiations just concluded, and whales are moving 😲!

Brothers, the biggest variable tonight is coming!

At 19:30 Beijing time, the first round of US-Iran talks officially begins in Switzerland.

Just received news that there has been positive progress in the negotiations, and Bitcoin immediately surged back above 64,300.

But don’t celebrate too early — the timing is very interesting, just at the weekend when liquidity is at its thinnest.

🔄 First, look at the market data:

$BTC ‌ Just broke above 60,0004, currently oscillating around 64,340, after rising from 63,150 to 64,560 in 24 hours, then pulling back. MACD shows a bullish crossover signal, but RSI6 has surged above 77, indicating short-term overheating.

$ETH ‌ Around 1,731, in the past 24 hours, it surged from 1,707 to 1,749 before pulling back. ETH/BTC ratio dropped to around 0.027, already at a low level since early 2023.

🐋 What really needs attention is whale activity:

There is a large wave whale that just opened a new short of 26,499 ETH with 3x leverage, worth about $46 million!

And there are pending orders to further add to the position. This whale has accumulated over $20 million in profit since October, known for low leverage and short-cycle wave trading.

Meanwhile, BTC main force has traded a total of $683 million in 24 hours, with $438 million in buy volume and $244 million in sell volume. ETH main force traded $339 million, with buy and sell roughly balanced.

Another whale just liquidated, then immediately opened a new 12.57 large 40x leverage short on BTC 😰!

📊 Heavy events next week:

On Thursday, the core PCE data will be released, with forecasts maintaining the May core PCE at 3.3%. The Fed’s dot plot has already revised the PCE inflation expectation from 2.7% up to 3.6%.

⏰ Key time points:

· Tonight at 19:30: First round of US-Iran official talks
· Thursday: Core PCE data + Initial jobless claims

🧠 Let’s be practical:

Liquidity is low over the weekend, and market movements driven by news often spike up and down. Whales daring to open shorts at this level indicate significant resistance above. But if negotiations really exceed expectations, short positions could be reversed.

The most important thing in trading is to know what you’re betting on, rather than chasing news to buy high and sell low.

Follow me to understand the logic behind the market 👊.