Beyond the Arena: The Profit-Driven Game Surrounding the World Cup

Author: Zen, PANews

The World Cup is not just a grand celebration for fans; it is also a rare global speculative window.

48 teams, 104 matches, a schedule spanning the US, Canada, and Mexico, compress attention, emotions, identity, information gaps, and scarce resources into just over a month. As a result, the World Cup has not only created football consumption but also a complete ecosystem of speculation. Some bet on scores, others trade probabilities, some buy concept stocks, some hoard jerseys and tickets, and others provide information and tools.

This edition of the World Cup coincides with an era of deep integration among prediction markets, sports betting, social media, and digital assets. As more capital seeks opportunities from the World Cup, this largest global football event has also become a weeks-long experiment in speculation.

I. The Rise of Prediction Markets

In 2022, during the Qatar World Cup, prediction markets were still a niche activity mainly followed by crypto enthusiasts and small traders. Now, they have truly entered the mainstream narrative of sports events and become the most noteworthy new betting scenario of this World Cup.

After the tournament started, trading volume on Polymarket’s “World Cup Champion” prediction contracts quickly surpassed $2 billion. By June 18, the platform’s champion market had a trading volume of $2.6 billion, with liquidity around $436 million. Another major prediction market, Kalshi, also benefited greatly from the traffic surge, recording a $5.1 billion trading volume in the first week of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, setting a new platform record.

Kalshi reached an official partnership with the Argentine Football Association during the World Cup, with Messi promoting the platform on social media.

In terms of user growth, prediction markets are surpassing traditional sports betting. US media citing Apptopia data report that from June 1 to 15, Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for nearly 75% of new activity in betting apps. During a sports cycle overlapping the World Cup, NBA Finals, and NHL Finals, prediction markets’ growth far outpaced traditional platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.

Compared to traditional sports betting, on-chain wealth stories from prediction markets are more shareable. After Spain and Cape Verde drew 0-0, about $64 million was traded on related markets on Polymarket. One new wallet trader bet that Spain would not win and Cape Verde would be favored, earning about $9 million profit; another more conservative trader bet on Spain’s victory but lost $1 million of principal.

II. Traditional Sports Betting

Before this World Cup, the betting industry already regarded it as a historic window. FT reports that betting on the 2026 World Cup is expected to exceed $50 billion, a 43% increase over the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

Today, the legal sports betting market in the US has also far surpassed that of 2022. Platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM have already replaced their homepages with World Cup content, fully embracing this sports and betting frenzy.

While prediction markets have taken much of the spotlight, traditional sports betting remains the largest base for World Cup speculation. Compared to new narratives and trading methods, traditional sportsbooks have more mature user habits, a larger legal market, and a more complete product ecosystem. For most ordinary fans, betting on match outcomes, handicaps, over/under, or scores remains the first choice.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimates that US legal sports betting during this World Cup will reach about $2.8 billion. If the US team advances further, this could rise to $4.3–$4.4 billion. According to Sports Business Journal, this would push football’s share in US betting from less than 5% to over 25%, transforming it from a niche to a core category.

Thus, in the story of “Old King vs. New Contenders,” prediction markets focused on financial trading offer freshness and social spread, while traditional bookmakers control the most mature, stable, and large-scale betting business.

III. The Stock Market

The World Cup also creates “concept stocks” in the capital markets. Often, a match schedule, a victory, or even just expectations of increased fan consumption can drive stock prices higher.

South Korea is a typical example. On the day before the 2026 North American World Cup opening, South Korea was about to face the Czech Republic in the group stage. As the match approached, investors bet that consumption of fried chicken, instant foods, and home viewing would increase during the tournament. Subsequently, on June 11, chicken processing company Maniker closed up 29.97%, Maniker F&G up 29.83%, and Foodnamu up 18.85%.

Such trading isn’t new for the World Cup. Before the 2022 Qatar tournament, South Korea’s “fried chicken + beer” concept stocks were already heavily speculative. Korean media reported that one month before the 2022 World Cup, Kyochon F&B’s stock rose 46%, Maniker 49%, and Jeju Beer surged 64%.

During the Qatar World Cup, Japanese market-related football concept stocks also fluctuated wildly with team performance. After Japan lost 0-1 to Costa Rica, market sentiment cooled on their prospects. Subsequently, companies like CyberAgent (parent of streaming platform Abema), Mizuno (sportswear), and Hub (British pub chain) saw declines. But after Japan beat Spain 2-1 and topped their group, market sentiment reversed, and their stocks surged again.

Each team’s wins or losses influence trader expectations and valuations of related stocks. These concept stocks thus resemble a sentiment market fluctuating around match results, consumption scenarios, and fan psychology.

IV. Ticket Resale Arbitrage

World Cup tickets are originally entry passes for fans, but in 2026, they have also become speculative assets. Some buy official tickets to resell, others purchase FIFA Collect “ticket rights,” and some list tickets for sale on third-party platforms before even receiving them. This turns the ticket market into an arbitrage space centered on scarce seats.

Ticket sales heavily depend on teams, star players, locations, and fan travel willingness. Arbitrage involves both profit and risk. After the schedule was announced, Houston was confirmed to host Portugal’s matches, igniting resale speculation for Cristiano Ronaldo’s games. Before the schedule, secondary market prices in Houston ranged from about $390 to $2,497; four hours after release, some tickets soared to $487–$11,150.

Before the tournament, FT reported that FIFA’s official resale platform still had about 180k tickets for sale, with roughly 176k concentrated in the group stage. Over a month, median prices on the official resale platform dropped about 20%. After deducting FIFA’s fees, many scalpers faced losses. Meanwhile, demand from fans of Mexico, Colombia, and other popular teams remained strong, with some resale prices reaching four to six times face value. Scotland’s return to the World Cup after many years also caused high premiums.

On third-party platforms, ticket trading is more complex. Sellers on StubHub, SeatGeek, Vivid Seats, and others often list tickets before actually receiving them, betting that prices will fall closer to the match, allowing cheaper purchases later. If prices rise, they risk being forced to buy at high prices or cancel orders and face penalties—similar to short-selling in finance.

Notably, FIFA has further amplified the speculative aspect of “entry rights.” The “Right to Buy” (RTB) allows future purchase of specific match tickets without immediate transfer, and these rights can be resold on FIFA Collect. This creates a “second-layer” speculation: first, reselling the ticket rights, then reselling the tickets themselves.

V. Collectibles and Merchandise

World Cup merchandise has always been a key area of fan consumption, with long-standing phenomena of collection, resale, and speculation. Items with scarcity, emotional value, and liquidity are most susceptible to market hype.

The classic example is Panini stickers. After the 2026 expansion to 48 teams, Panini’s official sticker album also expanded. This World Cup album has 112 pages, requiring the collection of 980 different stickers, including 68 special ones. In the UK, a pack of 7 stickers costs £1.25. Due to frequent duplicates, filling the album might require over 1,000 packs, costing nearly £1,000.

Panini’s speculative potential has been proven in the vintage sticker market. A 1979 Maradona Panini sticker once sold for £470k at auction. While most stickers won’t reach such prices, it shows that World Cup stickers derive value not just from paper but from players, eras, rarity, and collective memory.

Jerseys with identity or scarcity are also hot secondary market items. During the 2026 World Cup, New York launched a local-themed Portugal jersey, priced at $50 and limited to 1,500 pieces. Due to its low price and local symbolism, it sold out quickly. On eBay, prices soared to $400, with some listings at $999.

Before the Portugal vs. Congo match in Houston, vendors sold Cristiano Ronaldo’s No. 7 Portugal jerseys for about $60, while official retail prices were around $130. Many fans, aware of the questionable authenticity, still bought them to satisfy their identity expression at high ticket prices and travel costs.

For fans, as long as the jersey can be worn outside the stadium, on the stands, or in social media photos, it has value. For vendors and counterfeit supply chains, this demand is a harvestable opportunity.

VI. Cryptocurrency

The World Cup has also spawned a more fringe, volatile crypto speculation market. The wildest part involves unofficial World Cup Meme coins.

Two months before the 2026 World Cup, over 16k World Cup-themed tokens appeared on Solana, with 11,184 new issues in May alone—about 531% growth from April. Data shows that May’s Solana football Meme coin trading volume was about 650 times that of similar tokens on Ethereum. Most of these tokens lack team authorization, real utility, or stable liquidity; they rely solely on World Cup branding, national team logos, and star images to attract short-term traders.

A typical example is WORLDCUP, issued on Pump.fun on May 11. Its early market cap was under $40k, but within two days, it surged to about $6 million, reaching a peak of $12.2 million on May 21. One trader invested $341 in five transactions early on and sold in three waves, earning about $48k—over 140 times return.

However, such wealth stories only show the earliest entrants who successfully exited; many investors suffered heavy losses during the sharp decline. After the tournament started, a non-official Solana token named JUDE, linked to England star Bellingham, plummeted 98%. It had no involvement from Bellingham or the English FA, merely using the star’s name and World Cup hype to attract buyers.

Blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs warned before the tournament that “World Cup commemorative coins” have become potential channels for pump-and-dump schemes.

VII. Content and Information Services

The final layer of the World Cup speculation ecosystem involves providing information and tools for traders. Amid the massive fan interest, those selling “shovels” also profit.

A Chicago fan named Luke found it difficult to compare remaining tickets and prices across 104 matches on FIFA’s official platform. Using Claude Code, he developed SeatSidekick in just five days. The site scrapes FIFA’s ticketing backend data, consolidating inventory, lowest prices, and trends for different matches. Launched on April 18, it gained 178k unique users and over 1 million page views within a month.

Initially free, SeatSidekick later added price alert services. Users can set target matches and prices, receiving notifications when tickets meet their criteria. A Reddit user said he bought tickets beyond his means during the lottery phase, then used SeatSidekick to monitor inventory and competing prices, adjusting his bids to the platform’s “best deal” page, and reselling tickets for three matches within days.

Another more direct info business is selling betting advice. Many individuals and teams offer paid Telegram groups or subscription services during the 2026 World Cup, providing betting tips, daily match picks, and real-time opportunities.

The unique aspect of these tip services is that their income doesn’t depend solely on the accuracy of recommendations. As long as enough users believe the provider has an informational advantage, they can collect membership fees upfront. If the tips are successful, they can produce promotional materials to attract new members.

Some speculate on ticket prices, others on match outcomes, and these “shovel sellers” speculate on information demand itself. They don’t need to know who will win; they only need to realize that the more people try to profit from the World Cup, the more willing others are to pay for a faster, earlier, and closer-to-answer sense.

The real winners may not be those who guess the champion but those who understand how attention flows earliest. After the World Cup, scores will be recorded in history, but outside the stadium, a vast network of transactions has already quietly settled in the global market. ###