STRC drops to $82, Saylor says net reserves are $48 billion—do you believe him, or do you believe the market?

If a company has assets exceeding its debt by $48 billion, yet its stock drops 17%—do you think the market is crazy, or is there something you and I don’t know?

On June 18, STRC hit a intraday low of $82.50. More than 17% below the $100 face value, hitting a new all-time low since listing.

The entire crypto Twitter exploded. Some shouted “LUNA 2.0,” others said “death spiral is coming,” and some started calculating when Saylor would be forced to sell BTC.

Strive’s CEO Matt Cole posted a tweet that day, very serious: “Today is the hardest day in digital credit history.”

But he said something even more important:

“This is a leverage liquidation event, not a credit deterioration.”

What does that mean? The drop is because people who borrowed to buy were forced to liquidate, not because the company itself has major problems.

Similar product SATA stayed above $99 this week. If there was a bug in the product design, why isn’t SATA decoupling? It shows that this selling pressure is aimed at Strategy, not at these kinds of tools themselves.

Then Saylor stepped in.

On June 20, he directly posted data on X:

Strategy’s BTC and USD reserves exceed all debt by about $48 billion. The company has raised over $60 billion since 2022, all used to buy more Bitcoin, with an additional holding of over 716k BTC.

He also revisited old figures: when Bitcoin dropped to $16k in 2022, Strategy’s debt temporarily exceeded its assets by about $300 million, and MSTR dropped to $13.

No one believed he could survive then.

And what happened? Not only did he survive, but he turned a $300 million hole into a $48 billion surplus.

That’s Saylor’s playbook:

Use debt and preferred stock for financing → buy BTC → BTC rises → assets expand → continue financing → keep buying.

Sounds like a perpetual motion machine, right? But during a rising interest rate cycle, it’s indeed fragile. Dividends need to be paid, debts need to be repaid, BTC drops cause collateral to shrink—three big mountains pressing down simultaneously.

Analyst Murphy did some math: to break through preferred stock, BTC would need to fall to $26k; to break through debt, it would need to drop to $8,000.

Currently, BTC is around $64k. Still far from liquidation thresholds.

But the market doesn’t play fair.

The real danger of STRC decoupling is that its ATM issuance mechanism has stopped. When the price drops below $100, it can no longer issue new shares to raise funds to buy BTC—that’s the flywheel stopping.

That’s what the market is truly afraid of—not a sudden collapse, but a “pause.”

So, returning to the initial question:

A company with assets exceeding debt by $48 billion, whose stock drops 17%—is the market wrong?

The answer is: both right.

The $48 billion net reserve is real, and Strategy is indeed far from liquidation.

But the 11% discount on STRC is real too, the financing channels are cut off, and cash reserves have shrunk from covering 24 months of dividends to only 6 months—that’s real.

CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju said something very interesting:

“The biggest risk for Bitcoin isn’t a crash, but boredom.”

Because sideways trading is the ultimate killer for this kind of leverage model. No rise, no fall—you can’t use asset appreciation to cover interest, and cash reserves are slowly eaten away by dividends.

Is Saylor’s model feasible?

I think: during a Bitcoin bull cycle, it’s a genius design; during sideways or bear cycles, it’s a source of everyone’s anxiety.

The $48 billion reserve is a result of past bull markets, not a golden ticket to avoid future defaults.

“Don’t treat the money made in a bull market as a trump card in a bear market.”

Can STRC survive this time? Most likely yes. But what about next time? The time after that? #我的Gate交易时刻 #美伊谈判推迟 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 $BTC $ETH