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🔴Cuba's biggest opening since the 1959 revolution, is Cuba getting closer to the U.S.?
Cuba has just approved the most comprehensive economic reform package in 67 years.
176 measures approved by the Cuban Parliament:
- Private banks and businesses with over 100 employees are legalized.
- Domestic and foreign investors are allowed to buy shares in state-owned enterprises.
This is the largest opening since the 1959 Revolution, in the context of:
- Cuba's GDP forecast to decline by 6.5% in 2026
- Cumulative recession of 10.3% during 2025-2026, a total decline of about 26% since 2020.
- The black market peso exchange rate dropped from 500 CUP/USD (February) to 685 CUP/USD (June).
However, Cuba's economic power is not in the hands of the Party, but in GAESA - a military conglomerate controlling all tourism, finance, retail, and imports, currently holding $18B assets.
The reform is most likely a way to legitimize private/external capital flows into channels controlled by GAESA, or a way for the U.S. to gain more leverage over Cuba through economic power (which was impossible before when Cuba was closed).