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CITIC Securities: Believes Trump will revoke the investigation into Powell

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ME News message: On April 22 (UTC+8), a Citic Securities research report said Waller’s remarks show that he is facing a difficult balancing act. On the one hand, he needs to somewhat “please” Trump, so he acknowledges Trump’s say in interest-rate comments; on the other hand, he needs to gain trust from the market and within the Federal Reserve, so he emphasizes the mission of price stability and the Fed’s independence. Although Waller did not do well when questioned by Democratic lawmakers, this has little impact on whether Waller can take over from Powell. Whether Waller can successfully win a vote in the Senate Banking Committee depends on whether he can secure support from Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and revoke the investigation into Powell in order to help Waller pass the Senate vote. In the Q&A session, Waller stressed that he would not become Trump’s “puppet,” and the market is leaning toward hawkish trading. Waller’s views on reforming the Federal Reserve are more worth the market’s attention—especially his proposal that the Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the way the Fed’s current forward guidance is handled. Waller emphasized that the Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary tool. However, we still believe Waller’s balance sheet reduction plan needs long-term preparation, and the pace of advancement will be gradual. (Source: Jintou)
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