#嘉信理财携手Cboe推标普预测合约 | Wall Street compliance vs on-chain regulation: parallel ecosystems or a final merger?

Charles Schwab and Cboe plan to launch S&P 500 prediction contracts, while in the same week Kalshi and Polymarket were sued by multiple states. Wall Street is taking the path toward compliance, while on-chain platforms are bearing the pressure of regulation.

Will these two lines ultimately merge into a unified regulatory framework, or form a “traditional financial compliance prediction market vs on-chain native prediction market” parallel ecosystem? I think a parallel ecosystem is more likely, but traditional finance will take the lead. Regulators may find it hard to refuse players like Charles Schwab and Cboe—licensed, with lobbying power—but they can easily tighten the noose on on-chain platforms.

Old bull’s view: This isn’t just simple competition; it’s a process of regulatory reshaping. Wall Street is using real-world actions to push regulators to take a position—we want to play, so you have to give us the rules. If on-chain platforms still cling to the fantasy that “decentralization means no regulation,” they’ll be marginalized sooner or later.