The moment Trump’s 60-day ultimatum came out, my mind went completely blank.

I was still watching the $BTC order book earlier, with that 63,400 level acting as if it were nailed down—then this message directly threw off my pace for tonight.

A memorandum on the U.S.-Iran side has confirmed it is in effect, the Strait of Hormuz has resumed navigation, and the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has also been settled. It looks like good news, but when I turn around, I see that Iran’s foreign minister won’t depart until Saturday—negotiations still have to grind on.

What I was thinking in my heart was actually very simple: for the crypto market, geopolitical events like this are never a one-way positive. You have a ceasefire, and risk-aversion sentiment may ebb temporarily, but funds could instead flow back into mainstream coins;

but if at any point in the middle the talks break down, oil gets hit first, and $BTC won’t be able to run either.

My own feeling is that at this kind of moment, you can’t chase it with your eyes closed.

Earlier, that ACU wave of over 15x long positions around 0.08 was liquidated in batches. GMX was also cleared completely at 5.75. Even though the liquidation volume wasn’t big, the direction was very clear—under this kind of news flow, high-leverage longs are targets.

I didn’t move my position. I just watched the market grind there, waiting for the weekend negotiation news.

Put simply, the way I see it comes down to one word: wait. Wait for the 60-day negotiations to officially kick off, wait for the details of the Hormuz terms to land, and wait to see how smoothly those 700 stranded ships can actually get moving.

If you rush in now, either you get slapped in the face by the news, or you get targeted by liquidations.

Do you think Iran’s foreign minister will send out some kind of signal this weekend? As for me, I’ve lowered my positions to the minimum first.

When it comes to how geopolitical changes affect the crypto market: with this U.S.-Iran memorandum being put into place and the Strait of Hormuz resuming navigation, it means global trade settlement pressure is temporarily eased, and dollar liquidity won’t tighten in the short term because of this,

which is actually a positive for institutional allocation channels for $BTC and $ETH—some institutions’ IBIT is still seeing continuous net inflows.

Going forward, the key focus is whether there are any substantive breakthroughs in the weekend talks. If the negotiations break down, the speed at which risk-averse funds pull out of the crypto market could be faster than people imagine—and staying on the sidelines with low leverage is the steadiest posture for this round.
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