Stayed up watching the game and predicted a 15U move, but got excited and shorted $BTC. Now I’m completely numb.

Earlier in the night, I saw I hit 17U on football predictions, and in a daze, I thought I could also catch a bargain in crypto. Clumsily, I opened a 6x short at 62,278. Just now, I checked the market, and $BTC rose to 63,793, with an unrealized loss of 19U, a return of -14.59%.

I feel so regretful. The 17U profit from football predictions was still warm, but I threw it all in and even lost 2U.

Trading crypto really shouldn’t involve staying up all night. When it’s late and quiet, my mind isn’t clear, and I can’t resist small gains. When $BTC rebounded to 63,700 earlier, I should have been alert, but I still fantasized it could drop back to 62,000.

Looking back, $BTC rose steadily from 62,000 to 63,800. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision just came out, Powell hinted at a rate cut path this year, and the dollar weakened significantly.

An institution’s IBIT has been net inflowing for 10 consecutive days, and institutions are still buying. Opening a short now is really foolish—no trend break, just self-inflicted pain.

Next time, remember: don’t trade in the middle of the night, don’t trade when emotional, and if football predictions lose, withdraw quickly—don’t think about making it back.

Have you ever had the experience of just grabbing some gains somewhere else, then doubling your losses in crypto? Share in the comments so I know I’m not alone.

The news about $STRC continuously losing its peg is actually quite interesting. Leverage liquidations hit a record low, and Strive’s CEO said it’s a liquidation event, not a credit issue.

This kind of structural liquidity collapse follows a similar logic to mainstream coins like $BTC—funds are shrinking, leverage is being liquidated, but $BTC is actually supported by institutional funds.

In the short term, funds will continue to flow into more certain assets like $BTC and $ETH, while the liquidity risk in altcoins will persist for a while.