The World Cup is approaching, and the entry war for prediction markets has begun.

On the early morning of June 12, 2026, the USA, Canada, and Mexico World Cup officially kicked off.

As the most globally watched sporting event, the World Cup is not just about players competing directly on the field. Who will lift the Holy Grail? Which team will be the biggest dark horse? Who will take home the Golden Boot? For months before the start, hundreds of millions of fans have been actively discussing and predicting various outcomes on social media.

Unlike previous editions, this year fans can not only engage in verbal debates on social platforms or participate in traditional betting (which is often subject to strict regional regulations), but also a new on-chain probability perception tool originating from the cryptocurrency world — Prediction Markets — is becoming the biggest off-field highlight of this World Cup.

Converting collective wisdom into real money win probabilities, the appeal of prediction markets is undeniable. Over the past few years, prediction markets represented by Kalshi and Polymarket have repeatedly broken into mainstream awareness through global macro events, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market trends. Their high sensitivity to information feedback has even been regarded by many mainstream media outlets as a “more accurate barometer than traditional polls.”

However, prediction markets have long been more like an exclusive battleground for native crypto users. For an ordinary fan attracted by the World Cup, participating often requires overcoming a steep learning curve — wallets, seed phrases, on-chain transactions, Gas fees, smart contracts, authorizations, trading… These concepts, familiar to insiders, objectively create high entry barriers for new users, often preventing up to 90% of interested potential participants from entering.

In other words, while prediction markets have proven their product and value, they are still stuck at the last mile of “mass adoption,” hampered by cumbersome infrastructure and user experience.

Using Gate as an example, analyzing the significance of CEX channels

Facing this industry pain point, major centralized exchanges (CEXs) like Gate are integrating (or building) prediction market products and reconstructing user interfaces to try to lower the barriers for new users.

Gate is a typical case. As the first CEX directly connected to Polymarket, Gate has established a classic cooperation model — Polymarket provides underlying event participation, matching, and settlement capabilities; Gate offers on-chain trading entry points and account systems, allowing users to complete all transactions directly with their Gate accounts and USDT. As of June 16, 2026, Gate’s prediction market products have accumulated over $251 million in trading volume, with a peak of nearly $69 million in a single day, ranking first among over 300 channels collaborating with Polymarket in terms of nominal trading volume.

For ordinary users, the most direct benefit of this channel is the lowered participation threshold and improved user experience.

Within Gate’s product ecosystem, users no longer need to worry about creating wallets, cross-chain assets, Gas payments, on-chain authorizations, and other complicated steps. They can simply log in and use USDT to participate in prediction markets, with the entire process being essentially the same as spot or futures trading. Meanwhile, for experienced on-chain users, Gate also retains Web3 wallet integration, offering greater flexibility between convenience and native experience.

Specifically, at the trading experience level, Gate provides two different interaction modes: “Prediction Mode” and “Trading Mode.”

• Prediction Mode is more suitable for ordinary users. In this mode, users only need to choose “Yes” or “No,” input their stake, and confirm. The system will display the corresponding probabilities and potential returns, compressing the entire operation into a simple three-step process.
• Advanced traders with more experience can consider the Trading Mode. This mode offers more professional market tools, including order books, candlestick charts, depth data, and more. Here, prediction markets are no longer just about betting on the final outcome but become a real-time pricing and trading market around probability fluctuations.

In terms of trading flexibility, Gate allows users to perform “two-way trading,” meaning they can buy or sell their positions at any time before the event settles, based on market expectations, without waiting for the final result. When match progress, macro events, or market sentiment change, the corresponding contract prices will fluctuate accordingly. This flexibility creates more dynamic trading opportunities for participants.

In terms of scope, Gate’s prediction markets now cover sports events, cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, traditional financial markets, and more. Whether it’s the World Cup champion, Bitcoin price trends, or the development of global hot topics, users can find relevant prediction markets to participate in.

But if that’s all, it’s clearly not enough to support large-scale adoption of prediction markets. From a product design perspective, Gate aims to transform prediction markets from a niche on-chain tool into a comprehensive information discovery and trading system.

For most users, another practical challenge in participating in prediction markets is — even with significantly lowered operational barriers, it’s still hard to answer the core question of “what to buy.” After all, prediction markets are fundamentally a game of information and cognition. Compared to the trading operation itself, the ability to access timely information, understand market sentiment shifts, and identify potential opportunities often determines the final outcome.

To address this need, Gate has built a relatively complete information auxiliary system beyond trading functions.

• Smart Money Rankings: Quickly identify “smart money” and active traders in the market, view their historical performance, holdings, and trading traces. For inexperienced users, this transparent on-chain behavior display reduces information costs and offers additional market insights.
• Market Dynamics Monitoring: Users can track specific wallet addresses or key accounts. When relevant accounts make new trades, the system automatically pushes alerts. This tool is effective for those who want to follow whale movements or learn from mature traders.
• Live Section and Real-Time Updates: Aggregates trending events, market movements, and trading data to help users quickly grasp the most discussed topics.
• AI Insights: Integrates various viewpoints, latest developments, and related information around hot market events, helping users understand the underlying logic and improve decision-making efficiency.

From discovering hot topics, tracking market sentiment, observing smart money, to AI and capital flow analysis, Gate is building not just a Polymarket channel but a complete participation chain covering information access, opinion formation, and trading execution.

The World Cup is here: from watching to participating

If prediction markets’ value lies in converting collective judgment into market probabilities, then the World Cup is undoubtedly one of its most ideal scenarios.

Compared to macroeconomic events, football matches feature more frequent information changes, broader participation, and stronger emotional swings. From pre-match lineups and injury reports to every goal, red/yellow card, and tactical adjustment during the game, market expectations for the outcome can shift rapidly, directly reflected in the prices of relevant prediction markets.

For this top-tier global sports IP, Gate recently launched a dedicated World Cup theme zone, aggregating schedules, standings, popular prediction markets, and event updates.

For fans, there’s no need to switch between multiple pages; they can quickly browse matches, access information, and participate in predictions within Gate. The zone also offers match calendars and start reminders, allowing users to follow their favorite games in advance and receive notifications before kickoff, avoiding missed key matches and prediction opportunities. During the event, the Live updates further strengthen the connection between prediction markets and viewing experience. Match progress, trending events, and market trading data are synchronized, enabling users to monitor both on-field scores and real-time market pricing.

From a practical experience perspective, Gate has simplified the entire World Cup participation process — after entering the relevant match page, users only need to select support or oppose a result, input their stake, and confirm to place an order. As the tournament progresses, they can choose to hold positions until the final result or execute trades based on market price movements in advance.

From this angle, prediction markets are transforming the World Cup viewing experience. For participants, they are not just betting on the match outcome but also trading their judgment on the game’s trajectory and observing how market consensus adjusts with new information.

The next stop for prediction markets: from crypto circles to mainstream markets

Looking back over the past few years, prediction markets have already completed the most difficult step — proving their product effectiveness and market value.

Whether it’s the US elections, macroeconomic events, or global sports tournaments like the World Cup, more and more cases demonstrate that when enough people put real money behind their opinions on a single event, the market often reflects collective expectations faster than traditional surveys, expert forecasts, or even some media reports.

However, on the other hand, prediction markets still have a long way to go before truly achieving mass adoption.

For a long time, native crypto infrastructure like wallets, Gas, and on-chain interactions, while foundational, have also limited the user base. Most ordinary people are willing to express their views on a World Cup match, a rate decision, or a hot market event, but may not want to learn a complex set of on-chain procedures.

This also means that the next phase of prediction market competition will likely focus less on who can build better products and more on who can attract more users into the market.

From this perspective, centralized exchanges, social platforms, and other internet products could become key entry points for prediction markets in the future. Those who can abstract away the complex underlying mechanisms, lower the learning curve, and provide smoother user experiences will have a greater chance to push prediction markets from niche crypto-native tools into mainstream markets.

Gate’s approach exemplifies this path. By replacing wallet barriers with account systems, offering familiar trading interfaces instead of complex on-chain interactions, and building a comprehensive ecosystem around information discovery, opinion exchange, and trading decision-making, prediction markets are gradually evolving from a specialized tool for a few crypto insiders into a new market that more ordinary users can understand, participate in, and benefit from.

When prediction markets are no longer confined to a small group of on-chain experimenters but open to anyone to express opinions, discover consensus, and trade judgments, their true growth story may just be beginning.

Statement: This content does not constitute any invitation, solicitation, or advice. Always seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that Gate may restrict or prohibit all or part of its services from restricted regions. Read the user agreement for more information.