Bitcoin at $63,000, are you panicking?

First look at the surface: bad news is everywhere, sentiment has already collapsed.

Price dropped from nearly $97,000 to $63,000, a decline of over 35%. ETF outflows have continued for 13 days in a row, the longest in history. The new Fed chair's debut mentioned inflation as "sticky," and the dot plot hints at possible rate hikes this year.

Any random piece of news in 2021 could have caused BTC to fall 10%. But now? The price has stabilized between $62,000 and $65,000.

First thing: ETF outflows totaled $4.4 billion, but where did the coins go?

Net outflows for 13 consecutive days, BlackRock and Fidelity are selling. Sounds scary?

But check the on-chain data:

Exchange balances are continuously decreasing

Long-term holders' holdings account for 78-79%, unchanged.

In June, large addresses net accumulated 125k BTC.

Whale addresses (holding 100+ BTC) balances hit a 2026 high.

Second thing: The Fed is calling for rate hikes, but the market is already numb.

New Chair Warsh's debut shows nine officials expect at least one rate hike this year. Inflation expectations have been raised from 2.7% to 3.6%.

Market has become immune to the Fed's "bluff."

Last year, rate hike talk caused a 10% drop; this year, only 2%. Next time, it might be ignored altogether.

Rate hikes are not scary; unexpected hikes are.

Third thing: Technical analysis suggests the bottom is near.

The $63,000-$62,000 range is a high-volume trading zone after the 2024 halving, a major historical support.

Weekly RSI has fallen to around 30, the same level as the 2022 bear market bottom.

The 200-week moving average is at $58,000-$60,000, which is Bitcoin's lifeline; it has never been effectively broken in history.

Bull-bear confrontation, see for yourself.

One side is:

On-chain data: large holders accumulating, exchange balances decreasing, long-term holders holding steady

Price has dropped 35%, technical oversold

Market sentiment extremely pessimistic, contrarian indicators in place

Fed's "bluff" effect diminishing

The other side is:

ETF outflows for 13 days straight, capital pressure

Macro interest rates "higher for longer," risk appetite suppressed

Geopolitical uncertainties

Short-term trend still downward

Key levels: $63,000, critical line at $60,500.

Support below: $62,000-$60,500 → $58,000-$55,000 (extreme)

Resistance above: $65,000-$67,000 → $72,000-$75,000 → $87,000

Bullish strategies: hold $62,000-$60,500, volume rebound, break through $67,000 to confirm reversal

Bearish strategies: break below $60,500, target $58,000-$55,000

Spot dollar-cost averaging:

Buy in the $62,000-$60,500 range without hesitation, in batches, don’t chase rallies.

Target $72,000-$75,000, room for 15-20%.

If it falls below $58,000, add more; spot trading has no liquidation risk, just hold.

Swing trading:

Long at $62,500-$61,000, stop loss at $59,800.

First target $67,000, second target $72,000.

Position size 30-50%, don’t overtrade.

Short-term aggressive:

Rebound to $65,500-$66,500, small short position, target $62,500, stop loss at $67,500.

Or wait for volume breakout above $67,000 to go long, safer.

Futures traders:

Up to 5x leverage, risk per trade no more than 1-2% of total funds.

Long positions are more cost-effective than shorts at this level, but stop-loss is necessary.

You now think $63,000 is an abyss, but when it returns to $97,000, you’ll ask yourself:

“Why didn’t I dare to buy back then? I saw the bottom signals clearly.”

ETF is selling, big holders are buying. Retail traders are panicking, whales are laughing.

Every correction before a bull market is designed to shake out the indecisive.

When BTC dropped to $16,000 in 2022, everyone said it was going to zero.

And then? $97,000.

History doesn’t repeat exactly, but the rhythm $BTC is always eerily similar.