The panic greed index has risen from 14 to 23, which is still in the extreme fear zone.

Historically, this position often indicates a stage bottom, but this time is different— the macro environment is restarting an interest rate hike cycle, not a rate cut cycle.

Which comes first, the emotional bottom or the price bottom?
My personal judgment is that the price bottom is likely to come later.
Why? Because institutions have now shifted their pricing of liquidity; they no longer care whether you are in "extreme panic," they care whether the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will continue to shrink.

Retail investor sentiment can bottom out first, but for Bitcoin to truly stabilize, it must wait until rate hike expectations are fully priced in and leveraged short positions are washed out.

My experience as a seasoned trader is: every time there is a macro narrative reversal, sentiment always leads price by one step, but what truly determines the trend is capital flow and liquidation chains.

Now that the panic index is rising again, it only shows that the most panicked group has already taken profits.
Next, it depends on who can withstand the pressure of rate hike expectations.
Don’t rush to buy the dip; first, see clearly whether the Federal Reserve really intends to act. #美联储：降息窗口关闭，加息重燃 $SUI