#美伊谈判推迟 Are U.S.-Iran talks changing? Global high inflation and high energy prices may become the norm

According to reports from Agence France-Presse (AFP) and a French website of The Huffington Post, after U.S. President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkiyan signed a U.S.-Iran understanding memorandum on June 17 local time, the U.S.-Iran talks originally planned for June 19 in Switzerland were postponed.
Although both sides had previously reached an agreement to inject optimism into global financial markets, multiple economists and international institutions said in analyses that the global economy will still be difficult to return to pre-U.S.-Iran conflict levels in the short term. Soaring fuel and natural gas prices are expected to remain elevated for months, and global inflation pressure will stay severe.

01 U.S.-Iran Postpones Switzerland Talks
On June 18, U.S. media reported that the White House said the trip of Vice President Vance to Switzerland for talks with Iran was delayed due to logistical issues.
A White House spokesperson said in a statement: “The technical negotiations between the U.S. and Iran that are about to take place have not yet been finalized. The U.S. delegation is prepared and will depart at the earliest opportunity. But the logistics for these negotiations have never been simple, and it is difficult to predict.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghai confirmed in a social media post on June 19 that the U.S.-Iran talks originally scheduled for that day in Switzerland were postponed: “We are currently discussing plans to hold negotiations in the coming few days.”
Lebanese “Square” TV, citing sources, reported that due to Israel’s continued attacks on southern Lebanon, the Iranian delegation has suspended its trip to Geneva, Switzerland, to hold talks with the U.S.

02 Mojtaba: Holding Different Views
On June 18, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba published an open letter to the Iranian people in which he said that regarding the U.S.-Iran understanding memorandum, he essentially holds different views in principle. However, after obtaining commitments from the Iranian President and the Supreme National Security Council to uphold the interests of the Iranian people and the rights of the “Resistance Front,” he approved the related arrangements.
Mojtaba confirmed that Iranian President Pezeshkiyan and U.S. President Trump have signed the memorandum. He said that, in achieving the results at the current stage, relevant Iranian officials made tremendous efforts. He also said that the U.S. president “used all kinds of means” to push for the related arrangements under “predicament and helplessness.”
Mojtaba pointed out that Pezeshkiyan has made it clear that if the U.S. side makes “excessive” demands, Iran will not accept them. Future face-to-face negotiations do not mean accepting the U.S. stance. Iran will continue to monitor the implementation of the agreement’s related conditions and commitments.

03 Middle East Conflict Deals a Blow to the Global Economy
This round of U.S.-Iran conflict has had far-reaching impacts on the global economy. It has not only hit energy prices and inflation levels, but also affected global interest rates and economic growth.
According to assessments, the conflict has led to losses of up to 2% of global gross domestic product (GDP). The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global economic growth by 0.1 percentage point compared with January this year, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered it by 0.3 percentage points. The “Global Peace Index” (GPI), which reflects the impact of wartime economies, predicts that even if the Strait of Hormuz ensures a full restoration of navigation, global economic growth will still face a 0.6 percentage point decline. The Banque de France (France’s central bank) expects that the Middle East conflict has dealt a severe blow to France, with its economic growth forecast value lowered by 0.5 percentage point.

04 Limited Room for Energy Price Declines
In the crude oil market, after conditions in the Strait of Hormuz—an important global hub for crude oil transportation—eased, London Brent crude futures prices have fallen to below $80 per barrel. In the early stage of the conflict, the Brent crude price surged from around $62 to above $100, and during the peak of the crisis it once approached $120 to $125.
Although oil prices have fallen somewhat, they remain significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. In addition, Europe’s increased dependence on liquefied natural gas means that any fluctuations in global markets will quickly push up European natural gas prices.
Economists say the drop in energy prices will not be transmitted immediately or fully to end consumers. From crude oil procurement, refining, and distribution to final taxes, the transmission process across this industrial chain usually takes weeks or even months.
This means it is a protracted battle, and oil prices may stay high through this summer and possibly longer.

05 Damage to Middle East Oil Infrastructure
Some key infrastructure in the Gulf region was damaged during the conflict, continuing to fuel market anxiety. Experts note that, due to limits in technology and logistics, it will take some time to restart damaged industrial facilities, meaning the negative impact of the energy shock on the real economy is still spreading.
Julien Marcilly, chief economist at the independent consulting firm Global Sovereign Advisory, said the conflict will prompt governments and companies worldwide to expand their strategic reserves of oil and natural gas to defend against future supply chain shocks. This need for replenishment will keep energy markets under pressure, and energy supplies are unlikely to recover to pre-crisis levels in the short term.
In addition, the market has already priced in a long-term “geopolitical risk premium” into current energy prices. Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist of the IMF, told the media: “I think it will be very difficult for the Strait of Hormuz to return to the absolute state of safety for completely free navigation in the past.”

06 Persistent Inflation Pressures
Inflation driven by soaring energy costs has spread across entire industry chains, including transportation, agriculture, logistics, industry, and food. Insee, France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, predicts that by the end of this year, France’s inflation rate will reach 2.7%, while the forecast prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict was below 1%.
Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, said that earlier this year the global economy showed a positive momentum of easing inflation, accelerating growth, and stable trade, but the Middle East conflict has changed all of that, and the global economy will face even greater instability in the future. Over the past two years, central banks had generally expected that inflation was under control and planned to gradually cut interest rates, but stubborn inflation today is challenging this outlook for monetary policy.