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The most embarrassing thing isn't Vance not flying to Switzerland, but rather the crypto circle提前吃完了“和平红利” a few days ago.
Trump's call for the US-Iran agreement caused $BTC to rise from around 62,000 to 67,250, leading many to think the Middle East was cooling down and risk assets were recovering.
But the planned Swiss talks didn't go as scheduled, Iran also postponed, Israel again took action in southern Lebanon, and in 4 days, $BTC directly fell below 62,500,吐回去 the gains.
This is the core of the current market: not just negative news, but预期反杀.
The market's biggest fear is “thinking a deal will be signed,” only for gunfire to start again.
Oil price risk premiums have returned, inflation expectations can't be suppressed, the dollar's safe-haven status rises, and risk assets like $BTC, ETH, SOL take the hit first.
Now, some dare to buy around 62,000-62,300 because 60k is indeed a stronger support; but on the other side, the bears are also unafraid, the reason is simple:
10 days of gains, one day of a pullback, very similar to the rhythm of dropping from 82,000 to 59,000 earlier.
My stance is very straightforward: until the talks are re-implemented and the situation cools down, don't rush to see this as a黄金坑.
Once $BTC loses 61,000, it will likely go below to find buyers at 59,500-60,500.
ETH is even weaker, rebounds don't follow, drops happen quickly—at such times, don't hold onto faith and fight it hard.