June 17, 2026. Kevin Warsh concludes his first FOMC meeting. And markets immediately understood how critical it was.

The decision was expected. Interest rates remained stable between 3.50% and 3.75%. 12 votes against 0. Unanimous.
But the picture beneath the unanimous vote looked quite the opposite.
The dot plot, which shows the Fed members' interest rate expectations, erased the single rate cut for 2026. Not only did it erase it, it went beyond that. Nine of the 18 members predicted at least one increase by the end of 2026. Seventeen indicated that the risk of inflation is skewed upwards. This is a radical shift since the March meeting. In March, the median dot plot indicated a rate cut during the year. In June, the median is now pointing above today's level.
The PCE inflation forecast was lowered from 2.7% to 3.6%. The GDP growth forecast was lowered to 2.2%. Inflation is rising while growth is slowing. This combination has revived fears of stagflation.
And Warsh has radically altered all previous press releases.
The previous Fed statement was 341 words. Warsh's statement is 130 words. All language regarding the tendency towards a pullback has been removed. Hints about what might be done in the future have been erased. Warsh summarized it like this: This statement simply gives you the facts, as far as we can.
Forward guidance is gone. This means that the guidance bar that markets have relied on for years has been broken. What is the Fed thinking now, what will it do, when will it do it? The answer to these questions is now uncertain until data comes in.
How did the markets price this uncertainty?
The dollar immediately strengthened. Gold fell sharply, then partially recovered. Stocks reacted mixed. The S&P 500 fell 1 percent in the first hours. The Nasdaq closed slightly lower. But the bond market reacted most sharply. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 4.45 to 4.58. This move means additional pressure on risk assets because as risk-free returns rise, the premium demanded for taking on risk also increases.
CME FedWatch raised the probability of an increase to 60.7% for October 2026. It was close to zero before this meeting.
How did crypto react to this?
Bitcoin was between 65,000 and 67,000 before the decision. After Warsh's press conference, it dropped to $62,236. A drop of about 5% in 48 hours. This is historically considered the middle of post-FOMC crypto reactions. Hard, but not a collapse.
Ethereum, XRP, and other majors were hit harder than Bitcoin. The altcoin season index fell even further. Total market capitalization dropped to $2.15 trillion, just above the annual low.
But there's an interesting detail.
Warsh didn't include his own prediction in the dot plot. He made that clear. He said it would be premature to present his own opinion along with the other members' at the beginning of his term. This means the guiding voice of the Fed chairman has disappeared. What remains are the individual estimates of the 18 members. And these estimates are very scattered.
8 members want to keep interest rates at the current level. 1 member wants a cut. 9 members expect an increase. This deep division is a message in itself. There is a real disagreement within the Fed. Warsh announced that he has established five working groups to resolve this disagreement.
Now I'm looking at the big picture.
The essence of Warsh's message is this: The Fed is data-dependent. We will not act until inflation returns to 2 percent. But we will raise if the data requires it.
This message is not the language of 2024. It's the language of 2023. During that period, markets had to get used to a "longer period of highs." And during that process, risk assets were significantly under pressure. But this time there is a difference.
Oil is below $81. The Strait of Hormuz is open. The trade agreement between the EU and the US has been approved. The energy component, which pushed the May CPI to 4.2 percent, will retreat in the June and July data. This decline could change the views of members questioning Warsh's dot plot. If the data changes, the language changes. If the language changes, expectations change. If expectations change, the market changes.
Markets price events in advance. They start pricing in months before the real Fed pivot arrives. In 2024, the Bitcoin rally started long before the Fed's language change. This dynamic hasn't changed.
I draw the following conclusion from this picture:
The short term is clear. The market is relearning a hawkish Fed. This process is suppressing risk appetite. Crypto is struggling to rise in this environment.
The medium term is uncertain, but there is material for a positive scenario. Oil is falling. The risk of a trade war has decreased. Inflation data will begin to soften. The Law of Clarity is on the agenda. If one or more of these catalysts coincide, the picture may change.
What am I doing in this environment?
I have reduced my positions. I haven't completely closed them. My plan is to reduce the size during such periods of uncertainty, not to eliminate them entirely. My limit orders are between 59,000 and 62,000. Current holdings are at planned levels.
Warsh said, "I'm just giving the facts." I'm doing the same.
The truth is: the market is in a difficult environment. But difficult environments don't last. And even within this environment, signals heralding a turnaround are slowly emerging.
I'm sticking to my plan. As always.
#MyGateTradeStory
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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