That surge just now—I stared at the $BTC candlestick chart for a few seconds.

$BTC Short position, 5x leverage, entered at 60,181. Now it’s at 63,153, with a floating loss of 35.8 U. I originally wanted to wait for a rebound into the 63,800-64,646 range and then short along with the move. But when I saw someone calling out “the floor” around 60k, I panicked and manually placed a single order.

At the time, what I was thinking was actually very simple. The fear index is 14—extremely fearful. The normal logic wouldn’t be to chase a short near the floor, but watching $BTC keep pressing lower, I just felt like it was going to break down, so I wanted to grab some profit from the accelerated sell-off.

In the end, the market didn’t give me any respect at all. It rebounded straight to 63k, and now it’s stuck here—neither going up nor down. A stop-loss order is not possible, and holding it is not an option either.

The biggest takeaway from this move is that chasing shorts when you’re extremely fearful is just as easy to get reverse-swept as chasing longs when you’re extremely greedy. When emotions are at their peak, price often first sweeps in the opposite direction, flushing both sides, and then chooses a direction.

Next time you run into F&G being this low, either wait for a rebound and then short, or just don’t do anything—don’t fight the market near the floor.

How are you handling $BTC at this level right now? Are you holding, or cutting?

Speaking of which, recently a bunch of things have happened on the on-chain prediction market side. A Michigan judge said sports prediction markets aren’t under CFTC jurisdiction. The application for Polymarket’s ban was rejected. And Kentucky has also filed lawsuits against Kalshi and Polymarket at the same time.

CME also plans to sue the CFTC over its move to not allow Bitcoin perpetual contracts. The more the regulators stir up this muddied water, the muddier it gets—and in the short term it will definitely affect market sentiment. For something like $BTC, where liquidity is concentrated, once the regulatory shoe drops, volatility will be amplified. Contract traders should be prepared for getting jabbed (whipsawed).
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