[Has the gold bull market ended? My conclusion after studying top global institutions]

Many people ask me:
Is gold in a bull market or a bear market?
My answer might offend many people.
Gold is still a long-term bull market.
But in the short term, it has entered a bear cycle.
Why do I say that?
Let's look at the macro first.
The core logic behind gold's rise in recent years:
1. Global central banks are diligently buying gold
2. The credibility of the US dollar is declining
3. Global debt continues to expand
4. Geopolitical conflicts keep escalating
None of these four reasons have disappeared to this day.
So, from a five-year cycle perspective,
Gold is still in a super bull market.
However,
Many people overlook one thing.
A bull market does not mean it will rise forever.
Just like Bitcoin, which rose from 100 to 1000,
It also experienced a sharp correction in the middle.
The same applies to gold.
Since 2025, gold's gains have been too large.
The market has already priced in a large number of expectations for the next few years.
So, the problem arises.
The new Federal Reserve chairman takes office.
The market begins to reprice.
Originally, everyone was betting on rate cuts.
Now they start worrying about no rate cuts,
Even rate hikes.
The dollar begins to rebound.
US Treasury yields start to rise again.
Gold faces profit-taking.
This is also the fundamental reason why gold has recently been oscillating at high levels,
And even experienced a phase decline.
But I want to say a fact many people are unwilling to face.
The real risk of gold has never been a decline,
But when everyone is unanimously optimistic.
When a market:
Everyone is bullish
KOLs all call for more gains
Retail investors chase the rally aggressively
Media daily touts new highs in gold
At this point,
The correction is often not far away.
From a trading perspective,
I believe gold has already shifted from a one-sided bull market
To a bear correction within the bull phase.
The next half year is likely to be:
Rise — Fall — Rise again
Oscillation — Shakeout — Rebound
Not a continuous surge.
So, the people who truly make money in the future
Are not those who blindly bullishly bet on it,
Nor those who blindly bearish it.
But those who can understand the transition between bull and bear.
Finally, my view:
Long-term:
Gold remains one of the most worthwhile safe-haven assets globally.
Mid-term:
Gold is entering a correction cycle.
Short-term:
Shorting opportunities may outweigh chasing gains.
Remember one thing:
The market's biggest top
Often occurs when everyone believes it will only go up.
The market's biggest bottom
Often occurs when everyone believes it will only go down.
Trading is never about predicting the future,
But about seeing the sentiment in advance.
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