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STRC de-pegging: Saylor's big bet on BTC is being tested by the market
STRC hit a daily low of $82-85 yesterday, a new all-time low
Strive CEO explained that this was a leverage liquidation event, not a problem with the underlying credit, but the market clearly hasn't fully bought it
SATA also dropped to the $90 range, the overall Strategy market cap fell to $39.92 billion, dropping out of the top 250 US-listed companies
The most striking number: bitcoin:native holdings unrealized losses exceeding $10.8 billion
The company's official response is: selling BTC can pay for 32 years of dividends
This statement itself is fine, but it doesn't answer the real question the market is asking. The market is asking: if BTC continues to fall, when will you be forced to sell?
The entire narrative Saylor built over the past few years is that he will never sell BTC. Once this promise cracks, the credit structure will be re-priced, not linearly, but non-linearly
The real risk is not today's de-pegging, but the rupture of expectations management
Holders of STRC/SATA are buying not just yields, but the belief that "Saylor won't be forced to sell." When key opinion leaders start openly questioning, they are eroding the foundation of this belief
Leverage liquidations can trigger rebounds, but once trust is shaken, the rebound potential is limited
If BTC holds, Saylor's story continues. If BTC breaks a key support, the ending of this story is no longer in his hands
DYOR, not investment advice