10.5 million BTC in floating losses—does this data reflect the “carve a boat to seek the sword” mindset, or has it actually carved out a bottom? An annualized return of 69%–359% looks enticing—let’s see if it holds up by that time.

Coin Bureau reports that, according to a message from CoinJie.com, more than 50% of the Bitcoin supply—about 10.5 million BTC—is currently in a loss-making state, up significantly from 30% a month ago. Historical data shows that at the bottoms of major bear markets in 2011, 2018, and 2022, this level has appeared around here each time, but there is usually one last 15% to 26% drop beforehand. Meanwhile, the annual return range after crossing this threshold is between 69% and 359%.