SPCX (SpaceX) suddenly plummeted on June 17th, Fed decision day, with four layers of logic resonating in sequence. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is the core trigger, broken down as follows:

1. Core trigger: The Fed shifts to a hawkish stance, causing the overestimated forward stock valuation models to collapse
1. Valuation logic: SPCX is almost priced based on 5-10 year forward cash flows. Starship, space computing power, and Mars plans are all long-term realizations. In the DCF valuation formula, the discount rate = U.S. Treasury risk-free rate. The Fed raising interest rate expectations, delaying rate cuts, and increasing the probability of rate hikes within the year directly raise the discount rate. Future profits discounted to present value shrink significantly, leading to a passive downward adjustment of the reasonable market value.
2. Deadly financing blow: The company continues to incur large net losses (Q1 alone lost 4.2 billion), relying on continuous bond issuance and equity financing for Starlink network deployment, rocket iteration, and xAI computing power. In a high-interest-rate environment, borrowing costs soar, forcing a slowdown in expansion. Market expectations for growth slow down, funds flee growth stocks collectively, and tech stocks in the Nasdaq plunge across the board. SPCX cannot remain unaffected.
3. Expectation reversal: Early in the year, funds bet on rate cuts and liquidity easing in the second half; the meeting directly removed the guidance for rate cuts. Funds shifted from loose growth trades to defensive value trades in one click. High-flying new stocks were the first to be sold off.
2. Intra-trading causes: Short-term bubble + extremely small circulating supply, a little selling pressure causes a stampede
1. In just three days since listing, the stock rose over 42%, from an issue price of 135 to near 210. Many short-term traders who bought at IPO took profits of dozens of points. They had already intended to cash out, and the hawkish news triggered concentrated profit-taking and selling.
2. Circulating supply is only 4.2%, meaning very few tradable chips on the market: a small buy order can push the stock price up sharply, while a small sell order can’t absorb the selling, causing rapid drops from red to green during trading. The fragile liquidity amplifies the decline, which is the direct technical reason for the “sudden plunge.”
3. Passive index buying phase has temporarily exhausted: Previously, inclusion in the Nasdaq brought hundreds of billions of passive funds. The window for funds to enter has closed, and there are no stable support buy orders.
3. Hidden negative fundamentals, re-priced during decline
1. Earnings structure is single: only Starlink is profitable; rocket and AI businesses continue to burn cash. High interest rates will extend the break-even period.
2. Existing debt pressure: Nearly 30 billion in long-term debt, some bridge loans need to be repaid within half a year. Rising interest rates increase financial burdens.
3. Valuation overextension: Price-to-sales ratio exceeds 100, already overestimating growth for the next few years. When negative news hits, the valuation bubble bursts rapidly.
4. Capital behavior: Collective retreat of risk appetite for new stocks
Large IPOs just listed are inherently unstable in chips. Institutional funds are mainly short-term trading narratives, with no long-term holdings. After the Fed signals tightening, risk appetite quickly shrinks. Institutions prioritize liquidating the most uncertain and overvalued recent IPOs. SPCX becomes a preferred target for reducing positions.