$BTC is between 62,268 and 64,648. Down 2.08% in the last 24 hours. The Fear and Greed index is at 14. The market looks dark.

But to tell the story of this week correctly, we need to go to Wednesday.
June 17th, Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed chairman. The decision was expected. Interest rates remained unchanged between 3.50 and 3.75. 12 votes against 0. This was not a surprise.
The real surprise came from the dot plot.
9 out of 18 members predicted at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. 6 indicated they expected two hikes. The Fed's PCE inflation forecast was lowered from 2.7% to 3.6%. And Warsh completely removed forward guidance in his first press conference. No more "what we can do in the upcoming meetings." Just "we are looking at the data."
What did the market do when it heard this? Bitcoin fell from $65,000 to $62,236. Ethereum dropped between 2.5% and 3.5%. Altcoins were hit harder. CME FedWatch is currently pricing in a 60.7% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting.
This is extremely important because just two weeks ago, the market was expecting zero hikes for the year. Now, a 60% probability of a hike in October is being priced in. Expectations have changed that quickly.
But now I'm stopping and trying to read the whole picture.
Warsh removed forward guidance. This is both good and bad news. Bad news because it created uncertainty, and markets sell uncertainty. Good news because what the Fed is saying now is "we will act if the data requires it." Oil fell to $81. June and July CPI data will show a softening with the decline in the energy component. As this data comes in, dot plot members may update their views. Warsh did not include his own forecast in the dot plot. This is a signal of distance. The structure is changing, but it's not yet clear where it's going. Now I'm looking at the big picture.

Whales accumulated 125,000 BTC throughout June. This is verified on-chain data. Strategy acquired another 1,587 BTC this week, bringing their total to 846,842 BTC. With the SpaceX IPO, they became the world's eighth largest institutional Bitcoin holder, holding 18,712 BTC. All of these purchases occurred while the price was falling.
Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has dropped to a level that has marked the bottom of every cycle since 2015. This signal also played out at the 2018, 2020, and 2022 bottoms. Historically, this level has signaled a long base-building period, not an immediate reversal. Movement typically began after 60 to 90 days.
$59,130 ​​is the May bottom. This level has been tested and held multiple times. The 62,000 to 64,000 band is the current consolidation zone. A break of this band would be significant in either direction. If it breaks below, 59,000 will be retested. If it rises, 66,900 and then 68,000 are the first resistance levels.
The technical chart is mixed. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD shows a bottom divergence, the CCI and WR are in the oversold region, and the SAR is pointing upwards. These are signals of a short-term recovery. But on the daily chart, the MA7 is below the MA30, and the MA30 is below the MA120. The decline, coupled with volume, has a panic character.
I'm looking ahead to next week.
The official signing of the peace agreement with Iran took place on June 19th. This is paving the way for further declines in oil prices. As oil prices fall, the energy component in the June CPI data will also decline. This data will be released on July 15th. What the market will price in before that data is what I will be thinking about throughout this weekend.
There is an option expiry on June 26th. Volatility may increase in either direction until that date.
The CLARITY Act is pending in the Senate. If news of a vote close to the July 4th target comes out, the market will price it in beforehand.
My position hasn't changed. I'm not holding more than I can afford to lose. I have limit orders between 59,000 and 62,000. I'm not closing current positions because there's no reason to sell, just a negative macro tone.
The Fed came out hawkish. That's true. But that hawkish tone could change with falling oil prices or weak employment data. Warsh said, "we're data-dependent." If the data changes, the language changes.
This weekend is a week of analysis and patience for me.

$BTC and #CryptoMarket #MyGateTradeStory
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.