way i see it there are 4 companies with a shot at owning 70%+ of model market share

anthropic, openai, spaceX and… open source
- anthropic & openai are on the verge of self-improving models. end game.
- but spacex acquired cursor in the final inning. their harness gives them a legitimate shot at catching claude and gpt in coding. IF elon pulls that off then he’ll win on raw compute. no one has more gpus than him
- open source wins if frontier models price out regular consumers. they’re good enough for 80% of uses. we’re starting to see this with microsoft switching to deepseek
each of them are racing towards the golden prize of recursive learning,
whoever gets there 1st will leave competitors in the dust
every other model lab will fight over the scraps